Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 24: Can Athletics, Homer Bailey Stay Hot Against Angels?
Photo credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Homer Bailey
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Tuesday's slate of games, including how to bet the Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
One of the more underrated player acquisitions this season occurred on July 14, when the Athletics traded for oft-maligned starter Homer Bailey from the Kansas City Royals.
At the time, Bailey had a 4.80 ERA (4.49 FIP, 4.66 xFIP), an improvement upon 2017 (6.43 ERA) and 2018 (6.09 ERA), but Oakland still must have seen something they liked.
In 12 starts with the Athletics, Bailey has posted a 4.21 ERA (3.78 FIP, 4.05 xFIP), throwing the best that he has in years while modifying his pitch mix.
He has helped the Athletics to a 43-21 record in the second half, including a 15-5 record in September, and they currently sit 1.5 games clear of the Tampa Bay Rays for the lead in the AL Wild Card race.
Is Bailey worth backing on Tuesday as the Athletics offense draws yet another left-handed opponent?
All odds as of Tuesday morning. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-3 against full-game moneylines and 3-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 2-2, and I finished even on units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained six cents against the Diamondbacks F5 moneyline (+120 to +114) but lost 12 cents against their full-game moneyline (+117 to +129). I also lost four cents against the Rays full-game spread (-105 to -101) but gained 10 cents against their F5 spread (-140 to -150).
MLB Betting Model for Tuesday, Sept. 24
Today, the model recommends six full-game moneylines and five moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Mariners, Marlins, Phillies, Pirates, Royals and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Giants, Marlins, Pirates, Royals and Tigers as F5 plays.
Notably, the Angels didn’t make the list of recommended plays, which means that I don’t have to go directly against my number as I have a few times this season when backing the Athletics against left-handed pitching.
The Athletics have won eight straight games and have won in 10 of their last 11 games against left-handed starting pitchers. They’re 32-12 against lefty starters in 2019 and 30-12-2 on the F5 spread.
The updated trends since July 1, 2018:
- F5 Spread: 47-23-2 (67.1%), +$1,804
- F5 Moneyline: 44-19-9 (69.8%), +1,959
- Game Moneyline: 51-21 (70.8%), +$2,258
Their full-game spread trend dating back to 2018 isn’t as profitable — but they are 21-13 (61.8%, +$410) in 2019.
I backed the Athletics on the spread in both halves, as I did with the Rays on Monday.
Not only has their offense continued to crush left-handed pitching, but Homer Bailey is a different pitcher than he was earlier in the season.
Notice how he’s swapped out his sinker in exchange for additional split-fingered fastballs:
The splitter usage is up 10% over 2018, from 15% to 25%. The pitch is responsible for 38% of his swinging strikes this season:
— Oakland A's (@Athletics) August 21, 2019
Meanwhile, Angels starter Dillon Peters has overperformed with a 4.81 ERA compared to a 5.83 FIP and 5.41 xFIP.
I went off the board for a couple of plays, including betting the Milwaukee Brewers before their price plummeted closer to even money. I no longer see value on that game, however.
Similarly, I played a parlay on the Cardinals and Dodgers before their respective lines moved. I no longer see value in making that parlay, but I do think that the Cardinals moneyline is priced fairly at anything under -200.
Jack Flaherty has been among the best pitchers in baseball since the beginning of August with a 0.93 ERA (2.34 FIP) and 83 strikeouts in 68 innings.
Regarding the potential recommended plays, there’s a lot of bad teams on the board for Tuesday, but as my colleague John Ewing pointed out, playing bad teams can be profitable during the final week of the regular season:
That system currently flags the Marlins, Royals and Tigers, and I was most interested in playing the Royals in the first half among those teams.
Royals starter Danny Duffy has been better of late, and Kansas City also fits the following contrarian system for Monday:
Bets (so far) for Sept. 24
- Kansas City Royals (+145) F5 Moneyline
- Milwaukee Brewers (+125) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (-0.5, -140) F5 Spread
- Oakland Athletics (-1.5, -130) Game Spread
- Philadelphia Phillies (+145) Game 1 Moneyline
- Over 11 (-105), Red Sox at Rangers
- Over 9 (-118), Braves at Royals
- Parlay (+136): Cardinals (-185) with Dodgers (-190)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/24
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.