Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, Sept. 23: Back Wainwright, Cardinals on the Road?
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright (50).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes Monday's slate of games, including how to bet the Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Indians have identical records, at 94-62, with six games left on each of their schedules.
The Rays have a chance to inch ahead by a half-game on Monday, as they close out a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox, who are 8-11 in September.
On Tuesday, the Rays will host the Yankees for two games, before finishing their season with a weekend series in Toronto.
Meanwhile, the Indians travel to Chicago to face the White Sox tomorrow, before ending their season with an Interleague series against the Nationals.
The Rays need to make the most of their home games against their division rivals. Can they defeat Boston for the third time in four days?
All odds as of Monday morning. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-3 against full-game moneylines and 1-2 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My plays went 7-5, and I finished up 1.76 units for the day.
It was a positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 59 cents against the sides that I played, netting as much as 33 cents against the Rangers F5 moneyline (+160 to +127).
MLB Betting Model for Monday, Sept. 23
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Orioles, Rays, and Phillies as full-game plays. The model also likes the same teams, except for the Phillies as F5 plays.
Essentially, the model has a lean on all five games for today, but the two biggest edges are on the Diamondbacks and Rays – the two teams that I ended up selecting for Monday.
To back the Phillies, I may need to see their price climb north of +200 – and I’m staying away from the Rays and Orioles.
In Arizona, the Diamondbacks will face Adam Wainwright — the most profitable moneyline pitcher in the Bet Labs database, at 200-113 (63.9%), netting a consistent $100 bettor $4,155, with a 13.3% return on investment.
Wainwright’s fielding independent metrics (career 3.36 FIP, 3.62 xFIP) have tracked exceptionally well with his ERA (career 3.36) during his time in the major leagues:
In 2019, Wainwright has been the beneficiary of some good luck, and his ERA stands to regress towards his FIP marks from 2017 (4.29) and 2018 (4.28).
Based on total pitch value, only Roy Halladay and Corey Kluber have had more valuable curveballs during their career than Adam Wainwright.
He can still spin it too, ranking eighth in pitch value in 2019, while throwing it more often (36.5%) than any other starting pitcher except for Charlie Morton (37%).
This is a conscious effort which began last season, as Wainwright’s fastball velocity dipped below 90 mph; and has helped to extend his career:
His opponent, Alex Young, has over-performed with a 3.27 ERA (4.48 FIP, 4.52 xFIP) – thanks to a .245 BABIP (league average is .299).
However, he’s had some dominant performances this season – including a 12 strikeout effort, over eight shutout innings, against the Reds on September 7.
Alex Young, 12Ks in 24 seconds. pic.twitter.com/V9XP1HELH3
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 8, 2019
Since the beginning of August, Young has a 3.75 ERA with a 4.15 xFIP. Over his past five starts, he owns a 1.78 ERA with a 3.72 xFIP.
He’s an incredibly useful pitcher when he’s on, and I have the Diamondbacks projected as a 53% home favorite.
I backed them in each half on the moneyline.
As for the Rays-Red Sox matchup, I’m going to continue to take shots against Jhoulys Chacin while we still have time this season.
His skills have slipped into significantly below average territory in 2019:
The Rays will use Blake Snell for a few innings before turning to their bullpen today.
Snell looked sharp in his return from arthroscopic surgery against the Dodgers, tossing two clean innings with four strikeouts.
His velocity was down slightly from his midpoint over the past two years:
All of the Rays key late-inning relief pitchers should be available on Monday, after using three bulk inning pitchers (Jalen Beeks, Andrew Kitteredge, and Trevor Richards) on Sunday.
I have the Rays projected as a -277 favorite in this game, implied odds of 73.5%, and you can get them at a price less than -200.
Rather than laying the vig, I played the Rays on the spread on both halves – as I expect them to grab a nice lead early against Chacin.
Bets (so far) for Sept. 23
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+120) F5 Moneyline
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+117) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-0.5, -140) F5 Spread
- Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, -105) Game Spread
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 9/23
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.