MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/14: Will Chris Paddack, Clayton Kershaw Have a Pitcher’s Duel in Los Angeles?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chris Paddack, Clayton Kershaw
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 14 with his model below, and highlights Cardinals-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET) and Padres-Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).
My tracked plays went 0-4, but I was 0-5 and down 2.25 units for the day.
I placed a live moneyline wager on the Athletics (-110) when they were tied 1-1 in the third inning before they subsequently blew leads of 4-1 and 5-4, wiping out a projected win probability as high as 94.6% in the bottom of the eighth inning.
It’s already in the running for my worst beat of the season, but I’m still not the least bit discouraged — it’s been a rough couple of weeks and I immediately backed Oakland again on Tuesday.
Monday was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 5 cents on that Oakland moneyline (+110 to +105) and 20 cents on the Detroit F5 line (+150 to +130) but lost 5 cents on the Pirates moneyline (+160 to +165).
On Deck for Tuesday, May 14
The model recommends two full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Tuesday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Colorado Rockies and Philadelphia Phillies as the full-game plays. It also likes the Rockies as an F5 play. However, I’m not particularly interested in either of those sides.
Milwaukee, Philadelphia’s opponent, has been a very sharp side since that line opened. And the Colorado-Boston matchup is challenging to project.
Chris Sale has fared much better in his last two outings, allowing just six hits and 1 run with a 24:1 strikeout to walk ratio over 14 innings pitched. However, his average fastball velocity is still down from last season, hovering around 93 mph, and those two dominant performances came against the White Sox and Orioles.
Today is an excellent opportunity to watch Sale closely, to see if he can generate whiffs on his fastball against a solid Rockies offense. If he’s not, playing the live over might be worth your consideration.
Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is also experiencing a velocity dip. At full health, he’s a pitcher I would back today, but there are concerning signs in his profile.
I snatched up a bunch of other plays at less significant edges (around 3%), three of which lined up with sharp action: Cincinnati, St. Louis and Oakland.
Atlanta’s bullpen situation is a mess, and Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz is showing concerning signs of his own. His average fastball velocity has declined from 96.8 mph in 2018 to 94.5 mph in 2019, and opponents are making contact outside of the zone about 15% more often (74.8 % vs. 60.7%).
His strikeout rate has also plummeted. After sitting down nearly 10 batters per game (9.93 K/9) in 2018, Folty only has 24 strikeouts in 34.1 innings pitched between Triple-A and the major leagues this season.
Cardinals starter Jack Flaherty continues to hum along, pitching to a 3.55 xFIP after posting a 3.58 mark in 2018:
— Jack Flaherty (@Jack9Flaherty) February 10, 2019
I bet that game twice.
San Diego is the other full-game moneyline that I’m on — the Padres will see Clayton Kershaw for the second time this season while Chris Paddack will make his debut against the Dodgers.
Paddack owns the fourth-best xwOBA (.238) amongst qualified starting pitchers (minimum 150 plate appearances), just behind Luis Castillo and Blake Snell (.236).
He called himself a “man on a mission” after his last outing against the Mets, when he struck out 11 batters, including reigning NL Rookie of the Month Pete Alonso. Paddack has every intention of winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award and taking it away from Alonso.
He is a bulldog — gives you no time to get comfortable and he’s ready to throw the ball back almost as soon as he gets it from the catcher:
Chris Paddack, Pace of Play Enforcer. ⌛️🤠 pic.twitter.com/sll2pUuws7
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 7, 2019
Among pitchers who have tossed 40 or more innings, Paddack owns the best-weighted fastball value (2.50) and eighth-best weighted changeup value (3.51). Together, he throws those two pitches 89.9% of the time:
Here's a gif of some of Chris Paddack's outing today. pic.twitter.com/asBDiwVc4x
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) February 27, 2019
Kershaw has been utterly dominant against San Diego since the start of the 2016 season — 7 starts, 6-0, 50.1 IP, 0.72 ERA, 22 H, 6 BB and 61 K — but the Padres did get to him for three runs (two home runs allowed) on May 3.
With Franmil Reyes, Manny Machado and Hunter Renfroe in the middle of their lineup, the Padres have some right-handed power to make lefties a bit fearful. As a team, their wOBA split is better against lefties (.314, 17th) than against righties (.297, 23rd).
Lastly, I took Houston on the F5 spread against Ryan Carpenter. The Astros have the best wRC+ (143) and wOBA against lefties (.377), and I have them winning the first half of this game by a full run.
I would consider doing something similar with Cleveland in the first half against the White Sox and Manny Banuelos, as I have Cleveland favored by a full run in the first half, but the Indians have been terrible against left-handed pitching (.283 wOBA, 25th; 73 wRC+, 26th).
Bets (So Far) for May 14
- Cincinnati Reds (+115) Game Moneyline
- Houston Astros (-0.5, -125) F5 Spread
- Oakland Athletics (-110) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+140) Game Moneyline
- St. Louis Cardinals (-121, -122) Game Moneyline
- Over 6.5, Tampa Bay at Miami
- Under 9, St. Louis at Atlanta
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/14
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.