MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/14: Will Chris Paddack, Clayton Kershaw Have a Pitcher’s Duel in Los Angeles?

May 14, 2019 02:51 PM EDT

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Chris Paddack, Clayton Kershaw

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on May 14 with his model below, and highlights Cardinals-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET) and Padres-Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-1 against full-game moneylines and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My tracked plays went 0-4, but I was 0-5 and down 2.25 units for the day.

I placed a live moneyline wager on the Athletics (-110) when they were tied 1-1 in the third inning before they subsequently blew leads of 4-1 and 5-4, wiping out a projected win probability as high as 94.6% in the bottom of the eighth inning.

It’s already in the running for my worst beat of the season, but I’m still not the least bit discouraged — it’s been a rough couple of weeks and I immediately backed Oakland again on Tuesday.

Monday was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 5 cents on that Oakland moneyline (+110 to +105) and 20 cents on the Detroit F5 line (+150 to +130) but lost 5 cents on the Pirates moneyline (+160 to +165).

On Deck for Tuesday, May 14

All odds as of Tuesday morning (view live odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Tuesday, May 14.

The model recommends two full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Tuesday. 



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model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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