MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/29: Can Noah Syndergaard Regroup in LA?
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard (34).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 29 with his model below and highlights Cardinals-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Astros-Cubs (8:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
I’ve suffered a few bad beats this season but was fortunately on the right side of one on Tuesday.
Greg Allen's first home run of the year ties the game in Boston…
The Red Sox had a 99.44% chance of winning entering the top of the 9th, leading 5-2.pic.twitter.com/LqxyK9upwP
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) May 29, 2019
Cleveland went on to score two more runs in the inning, winning the game, 7-5.
It was as bad of a beat for Under 9 bettors as it was for Red Sox backers. This was a 0-0 game through five innings, 3-0 going into the top of the eighth inning and 5-2 going into the top of the ninth.
The Under had a 90%-94% chance of covering from the top of the fifth inning until the top of the ninth.
If you lost either a Red Sox bet or an Under bet, it must have felt like getting hit in the face:
White Sox First Pitch (w/ Motion Tail). pic.twitter.com/CqfWnDMTlb
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-0 against full-game moneylines. There was no F5 play as the Twins ended up changing their starting pitcher.
My tracked plays went 6-1, and I was up 2.55 units for the day. My only loss was on one of the four totals that I played.
Tuesday was a slightly positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 20 cents on the Rays spread (+115 to -105) and 14 cents on the Cleveland moneyline (+194 to +180). However, I lost 10 cents on the Astros moneyline (-125 to -115).
On Deck for Wednesday, May 29
The model recommends three full-game moneylines and two moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Wednesday.
As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Houston Astros, New York Mets and St. Louis Cardinals as the full-game plays. It also likes the Mets and Cardinals as F5 plays.
I took all three full-game plays, and also played the F5 spread with Blake Snell and the Tampa Bay Rays.
Dating back to last season, Snell is 25-15 overall against the first half spread (and 16-10 as a favorite), for a 20% return on your investment.
The Astros are looking for a three-game sweep at home over the Cubs after taking two of three games from Boston.
Wade Miley continues to confound with his cutter, and fielding independent metrics suggest that his .258 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) should regress toward his career mark (.306).
But Miley pitched to a .269 BABIP in 2018 after dramatically increasing his cutter usage, while playing behind one of the best and most innovative defensive teams in baseball.
The Astros signed Wade Miley. My quick thoughts:
– Great fit for Astros, Miley's new cutter made him successful in 2nd half
– Mchugh & Josh James are fine, Framber Valdez out
– Wrote about Miley's cutter for Fangraphs. Read it. https://t.co/PvLpxBpl1i
Here's the new cutter 👇 pic.twitter.com/Ef0n4SxngI
— Pitcher List (@PitcherList) January 31, 2019
His batted ball data suggests that he can maintain an ERA of around 3.75, rather than fully regressing to the 4.30-4.50 range.
I also like the under in that Astros game.
The Cardinals will start a rookie in Genesis Cabrera against Phillies ace Aaron Nola. Naturally, the public will be all over the Phillies, but the Cardinals line has held steady at around +150, and they’ve even taken some sharp action.
Cabrera is a 22-year-old lefty out of the Dominican Republic, acquired in the Tommy Pham trade, whose minor league numbers don’t inspire much confidence.
However, it’s not as simple as looking at a guy’s minor league numbers, seeing a 6.35 ERA at Triple-A and going, “this guy sucks.” Keep in mind that he has always been young for his minor league level.
And young pitchers can suddenly find (or lose) their command overnight.
Cabrera has trended upward over his past four outings in Triple-A, with a 24:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 23 innings. The Cardinals are one of the best organizations at knowing when to promote their minor league players.
Maybe Cabrera found something and they’re seeing if it will work in the big leagues instead of in the offense-friendly Pacific Coast League.
Noah Syndergaard is rarely this big of an underdog.
He currently sports a 4.93 ERA but that is largely the result of his allowing 10 home runs on a 15% home run to flyball rate, with a .330 batting average on balls in play, while stranding 10% fewer runners than he has over his career.
His xwOBA (.274) is right in line with his career mark (.268), comparable to his opponent Walker Buehler (.290 in 2019, .273 career).
The Mets are looking to grab a split of a four-game set with the Dodgers today with Thor on the mound. I’d expect an extra gear of intensity from him tonight.
Bets (So Far) for May 29
- Houston Astros (-101) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (+175) Game Moneyline
- St. Louis Cardinals (+151) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-0.5, -145) F5 Spread
- Under 9.5, Chicago at Houston
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/29
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.