Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/30: Cardinals Overvalued vs. Joey Lucchesi?
Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Lucchesi
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 30 with his model below and highlights Cubs-Reds (1:10 p.m. ET) and Athletics-Angels (4:07 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Eleven left-handed starting pitchers are scheduled to go on Sunday, and my picks involve four of them — three of whom I’m fading and one who I’m backing due to the southpaw-hitting ineptitude of the offense that he’s facing. Blake Snell isn’t involved in those selections, though I will also be watching him closely to see if he can snap out of his June swoon (17.1 IP, 30 H, 24 R, 12 BB, 22 K).
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-3 against full-game moneylines and 2-2 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 1-4, and I finished down 1.51 units for the day.
However, it was a completely positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 16 cents against the White Sox moneyline (+150 to +134), 15 cents against the Nationals spread (-120 to -125), 10 cents against the under 9.5 in Houston (-115 to -125), 4 cents against the A’s moneyline (+133 to +129) and a penny on the Red Sox moneyline.
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, June 30
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marks the Dodgers, Marlins, Orioles, Reds and Tigers as full-game plays. The model also likes the Dodgers, Marlins, Orioles and Reds as F5 plays.
I ended up using the Dodgers in a rare parlay with the Astros, who I showed at a fair value with an opening price of -276. With my projections suggesting fair odds of over 70% on both teams, I saw some value in a two-leg parlay that pays out at +116.
The line has already moved my way on the Astros, from -270 to about -300 thanks to Gerrit Cole and his MLB best 2.72 xFIP, but the Dodgers line has come down to around -150 due to some sharp action on Colorado.
Kenta Maeda has been solid at Coors Field over the past three seasons (31 IP, 3.19 ERA, 25 H, 8 BB, 35 K) and the Rockies have fared better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching, especially of late. Since the start of June, they have a 107 wRC+ vs. lefties (9th), but just a 77 wRC+ vs. righties (27th).
The Reds offense has also fared much better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching of late, ranking close to average vs. southpaws (99 wRC+) in June, but nearer to the bottom of the league vs. righties (76 wRC+, 28th).
Their strikeout rate vs. righties this season is 24.6% (tied for 23rd), but they cut that rate down to just 20.4% vs. left-handed pitching (sixth).
I like their chances to clinch a series win today vs. the Cubs while facing a southpaw for the third consecutive game.
Anthony DeSclafani is also due for some slightly positive regression. His 4.70 ERA and 4.74 FIP are a match, but a 4.45 xFIP, 4.28 SIERA, and 4.29 career ERA point to a way forward.
His 10.6% swinging strike rate is a career high and up from 2018 by 1.2%, likely as a result of a velocity increase (from 93.6 mph to 94.4 mph), and he’s showing the highest strikeout rate of his career as a result. But he’s also getting hit harder than ever, with a .330 xWOBA that is 0.26 points above his career average, on an 89.1 mph average exit velocity (career 87.5 mph)
DeSclafani’s slider has been his best pitch for a few seasons, but he’s decreased its usage by 10% in 2019 in exchange for more curveballs — a switch that’s been both a net negative and surprising considering that the curveball was easily his worst pitch in 2018 too.
Anthony DeSclafani, Nasty 90mph Slider. 😨
Everyone asks for a ruling.
The Verdict: ⚔️🤺 pic.twitter.com/BD4V3pCukI
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 6, 2019
The A‘s were my favorite bet on Saturday due to their matchup vs. a left-handed pitcher, and they’re now 15-7 vs. southpaw starting pitchers in 2019.
I’ll back them again here vs. Andrew Heaney, who has been erratic with eight strikeouts against 11 walks over his past three starts. That being said, Heaney struck out 28 batters in his first three starts and 18.2 innings pitched this season.
Lastly, I’m fading a team that hasn’t been hitting left-handed pitching very well: The St. Louis Cardinals.
Intuitively it’s a bit surprising — they’re loaded with right-handed bats and their only true lefties are Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong. But as a team, the Cardinals rank 19th with an 89 wRC+, and it’s gotten worse with just a 73 wRC+ (29th in MLB) since the start of June.
Fernando Tatis Jr. also continues to be an engine for the Padres offense. As a team, they ranked 16th in May with a 94 wRC+, but they rank third with a 119 wRC+ since he returned to the lineup on June 6.
He has 11 home runs and 12 stolen bases in 47 games played — good for a 30-30 pace over a full season.
The power-speed combination is legitimate: Tatis Jr. ranks in the top 2% of all players with a .430 wOBA and in the top 4% with a sprint speed of 29.2 feet per second.
— San Diego Padres (@Padres) June 30, 2019
His spray chart further demonstrates how he crushes the ball with an all-fields approach:
Bets (So Far) for June 30
- Cincinnati Reds (+112) Game Moneyline
- Oakland Athletics (+124) Game Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (-114) Game Moneyline
- 2-Way Parlay (+116): LA Dodgers (-171) and Houston (-275)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/30
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.