Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright.
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on May 16 with his model below, and highlights Rangers-Royals (1:10 p.m. ET) and Cardinals-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
MLB favorites have been on a complete tear in May, winning 65.7% of the time on the full-game moneyline.
I was alerted of this fact this morning and went into BetLabs to confirm it for myself:
Betting MLB favorites in May has been the only short term financial strategy as profitable as dumping all of your money into Bitcoin (up 57% over the past month).
Home favorites are 90-48 (8.7% ROI), and road favorites are 38-20 (10.6% ROI). A $100 bettor would be up almost 20 units, with a 9.8% return on their investment (ROI).
Coinflip games are still going in either direction. Favorites at odds of -104 to -120 are only 23-23 over this same span, meaning that favorites at -121 or higher have gone 107-45 (+$2,203, 14.5% ROI).
This is an unsustainable run. We will continue to press on, and wait for regression to pay us back in spades.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 0-4 against full-game moneylines, with the Rockies losing in 10 innings at Boston.
My tracked plays went 2-6, and I was down 1.61 units for the day.
Wednesday was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 10 cents on the Tampa Bay F5 spread (-125 to -135), 9 cents on the Rockies moneyline (+137 to +128), 7 cents on the Cardinals moneyline (+131 to +124) 6 cents on the Mets moneyline (+148 to +142), 3 cents on the Pirates moneyline (+150 to +147), and only lost 8 cents on the Rangers moneyline (-125 to -117).
On Deck for Thursday, May 16
The model recommends three full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday.