MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/23: Can Mets Earn Sweep vs. Strasburg, Nationals Bullpen?

MLB Daily Betting Model, 5/23: Can Mets Earn Sweep vs. Strasburg, Nationals Bullpen? article feature image

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Amed Rosario

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on May 23 with his model below, and highlights Mets-Nationals (12:10 p.m. ET) as a potential edge.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

What’s the furthest that you have ever commuted for one day of work?

For me, it was over three hours, from Queens, N.Y. to Lehigh Valley, Pa., just to get into the office for a morning shift.

Oddly enough on Wednesday, the Mets Rajai Davis took batting practice at his Triple-A game in Lehigh Valley before being called-up by the Mets at about 5 p.m. and jumping into an Uber for a 112-mile commute to Queens:

Davis arrived at Citi Field in the third inning, and entered 2019 Mets lore by the eighth inning:

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 3-3 against full-game moneylines, and 0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5).

My tracked plays went 3-2, and I was up 0.68 units for the day.

Wednesday was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 20 cents on the Rays moneyline (+130 to +110) 17 cents on the Reds F5 moneyline (-108 to -125) and 13 cents on the Blue Jays F5 moneyline (+143 to +130) but lost 11 cents on the Texas moneyline (+105 to +116) and 6 cents on the Phillies moneyline (+148 to +154).

On Deck for Thursday, May 23

All odds as of Thursday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Thursday, May 23. 

The model recommends two full-game moneylines and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Wednesday. 

As of writing, the 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets as the full-game plays. It also likes the Orioles as a F5 play.

The Mets are in an enticing spot today at plus-money at home, looking for a four-game sweep against their division rivals from Washington D.C.

The Mets were getting a lot of negative media attention coming into this series following a weekend sweep at the hands of the Marlins, but they currently sit just 4.5 games out of first place in the NL East.

Meanwhile, the Nationals are now 19-30, 9.0 games off of the Phillies’ pace in the division. Their bullpen has arguably been the worst in baseball, pitching to a league-worst 6.89 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, and 5.14 xFIP.

They’ve struggled to build a bridge to closer Sean Doolittle, and have now started using Doolittle in the eighth inning. That strategy backfired last night against the Mets after Doolittle and setup man Kyle Barraclough surrendered six runs in the eighth inning (including that Rajai Davis home run above).

The Nationals will send out Stephen Strasburg on Thursday, and he has been tremendous in 2019. Strasburg’s swinging strike rate (15.2%) and strikeout minus walk rate (25.8%) are the best of his career, as he has mostly scrapped his slider and increased his curveball usage from 20% to 30%.

The total pitch value on Strasburg’s curveball (9.9) is the second best on any curveball behind Charlie Morton (10.1), and on a per-pitch basis it is third best behind J.A. Happ and German Marquez.

However, the Nationals bullpen is very thin heading into today, after receiving just 16 combined innings from Patrick Corbin, Erick Fedde, and Max Scherzer over the past three days.

Doolittle should be available, but many of their middle relievers will not be. That could leave the Nationals bullpen exposed once again if the Mets can work up a pitch count against Strasburg.

Bets (So Far) for May 23

  • New York Mets (+143) Game Moneyline

Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Thursday, May 23.

Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 5/23

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.