MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/12: Can Lance Lynn, Rangers, Clinch Series Win vs. Red Sox?
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rangers pitcher Lance Lynn
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 12 with his model below and highlights Rangers-Red Sox (4:05 p.m. ET) as a potential edge.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
After destroying Triple-A, rookie Yordan Alvarez continues to search for a promotion to a level of baseball higher than Major League Baseball. For now, the Astros will have to do:
Yordan Alvarez hits homers in 100% of the games he plays in. pic.twitter.com/WanfistbVH
— MLB (@MLB) June 12, 2019
That ball was at his ankles.
Tampa’s Brandon Lowe (14 HR, .884 OPS) has been the leading rookie hitter in the American League this season..
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (7 HR, .747 OPS), was everybody’s choice for AL Rookie of the Year coming into the year, but he has struggled so far. Other leading contender Eloy Jimenez (9 HR, .741 OPS) has also yet to hit his stride for the White Sox.
Yordan Alvarez has plenty of season left to steal the award.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-2 against full-game moneylines and 2-3 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My tracked plays went 3-7, and I finished down 2.46 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 16 cents against moneylines and spreads, missing on two games by as much as 13 cents — but also gained 28 cents against totals and saw one Under move down from 9.0 to 8.5.
MLB Betting Model for Wednesday, June 12
Today, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Mariners, Marlins and Rangers as full-game plays. The model also likes the the Marlins, in addition to the Braves, Phillies and Reds as F5 plays.
I also played the Braves and Reds in the first half — using Atlanta against the spread instead of backing them at over -200 on the moneyline.
Mike Soroka does a lot of things well, and his command is polished enough to make me believe in his consistency. Soroka’s 3.35 K/BB ratio combined with a 58% groundball rate has me falling out of my chair.
I took the Rangers once again for the full-game against the Red Sox. Texas is looking to clinch a series victory in Boston today.
Lance Lynn is the type of pitcher that you want to back in this spot. He’s on a run of six straight quality starts, with 49 strikeouts and seven walks over 39.1 innings.
Lynn has decreased his sinker usage and increased his cutter usage with the Rangers. The cut-fastball has earned a pitch value of +4.0, the second-highest mark of his career (+5.4 in 2017).
His 4.39 ERA is also due for some positive regression with his 3.96 xFIP and 3.17 FIP, pointing to better days ahead.
Lastly, I played the under at Coors field once again. Unders in Colorado haven’t been a safe bet this season at 13-19 but they did hit at a 59% clip the past two seasons (+$2,400, 15% ROI).
Including 2019, Coors Field unders that open between 12 and 13 are 24-12 (66.7%, +$1,136, 31.6% ROI) since 2017 — covering by 1.1 runs per game.
Bets (So Far) for June 12
- Atlanta Braves (-0.5, -145) F5 Spread
- Cincinnati Reds (+140) F5 Moneyline
- Colorado Rockies (+130) Game Moneyline
- Houston Astros (-128) Game Moneyline
- Texas Rangers (+140) Game Moneyline
- Under 12.5, Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/12
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.