MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/13: Can Yusei Kikuchi Regain His Form Against Twins?

Jun 13, 2019 07:00 PM EDT

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yusei Kikuchi

  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the full slate of games on June 13 with his model below and highlights Mariners-Twins (1:10 p.m. ET) as a potential edge.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

I saw a lot of great defensive plays on Wednesday, including this gem of a tag by Elvis Andrus:

But I’ve never seen this before; a catcher using the protective netting like fly strips in order to catch a popup in the area behind home plate:

You typically see people behind those nets flinching at objects that can’t hit them.

Jeremy Martinez is out here diving into that netting from the opposite direction, with zero consideration as to whether it can hold all of his weight; and all without taking his eye off of the ball.

Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model

At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-1 against full-game moneylines and 3-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).

My tracked plays went 4-4, and I finished up 0.01 units for the day.


It was a mostly positive in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 37 cents overall against moneylines and spreads; netting as much as 20 cents on the Rockies moneyline (+130 to +110) and only playing the Rangers moneyline prematurely (+140 to +150).

I also played the Rockies / Cubs Under two times, at 12.5 and 12.0, and it closed at 11.5 (the game finished 10-1).

MLB Betting Model for Thursday, June 13

All odds as of Thursday morning (view live MLB odds). Stay tuned on Twitter or follow me in The Action Network App for my entire betting card for Thursday.

Today, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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