MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/13: Can Yusei Kikuchi Regain His Form Against Twins?
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yusei Kikuchi
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 13 with his model below and highlights Mariners-Twins (1:10 p.m. ET) as a potential edge.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
I saw a lot of great defensive plays on Wednesday, including this gem of a tag by Elvis Andrus:
But I’ve never seen this before; a catcher using the protective netting like fly strips in order to catch a popup in the area behind home plate:
You won’t see a catcher make a better catch than that 👏 pic.twitter.com/Ze0DbCwuDb
— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) June 13, 2019
You typically see people behind those nets flinching at objects that can’t hit them.
Jeremy Martinez is out here diving into that netting from the opposite direction, with zero consideration as to whether it can hold all of his weight; and all without taking his eye off of the ball.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 2-1 against full-game moneylines and 3-1 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My tracked plays went 4-4, and I finished up 0.01 units for the day.
It was a mostly positive in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 37 cents overall against moneylines and spreads; netting as much as 20 cents on the Rockies moneyline (+130 to +110) and only playing the Rangers moneyline prematurely (+140 to +150).
I also played the Rockies / Cubs Under two times, at 12.5 and 12.0, and it closed at 11.5 (the game finished 10-1).
MLB Betting Model for Thursday, June 13
Today, the model recommends three full-game moneylines and three moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Chicago White Sox, San Diego Padres, and Texas Rangers as full-game plays. The model also likes the White Sox, in addition to the New York Mets and Seattle Mariners as F5 plays.
I played all of those teams except for Texas (as Boston is taking one-sided sharp action thus far), and I only played the White Sox over the full game at bigger odds than their F5 moneyline.
I also played the Tampa Bay Rays against a lefty, once again. Even after the loss to Brett Anderson and the A’s yesterday, the Rays remain 40-28 (+$1,026, +15.1% ROI) against southpaws over the past two seasons.
As a spread favorite they’re 21-14 vs. lefties (+1,045, 29.9% ROI), making the run line the more optimal play to me at +150, rather than laying -140.
As for the featured game this afternoon, Yusei Kikuchi has struggled recently for the Mariners and couldn’t generate any strikeouts in his last few turns against the Athletics and Angels.
Perhaps its a product of facing those contact-heavy divisional rivals for the third time each this season. At 7.3% and 10.1% respectively, the Angels and Athletics have the lowest and 5th lowest swinging strike rates in baseball.
The Twins are closer to average, at 11.2%, and Kikuchi fared better in his lone outing against them (6 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 6 K).
At a big price, I’m willing to see if he can get back on track early in the game against former Mariner Michael Pineda and the most powerful lineup in baseball.
That being said, Pineda has been trending upwards of late, posting his best velocity and swinging strike rate of the season in his last outing against the Tigers.
My biggest bet of the day is on the under in that Twins-Mariners game.
Bets (So Far) for June 13
- Chicago White Sox (+171) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (-135) F5 Moneyline
- San Diego Padres (+142) Game Moneyline
- Seattle Mariners (+178) F5 Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5, +150) Game Spread
- Under 10.5 (-110), Seattle at Minnesota
- Under 9 (-120), LA Angels at Tampa Bay
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/13
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.