MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/9: Can Jose Suarez Shine In Second Angels Start?
Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Jose Suarez (54).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 9 with his model below and highlights Rays-Red Sox (1:05 p.m. ET) and Nationals-Padres (4:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
On Saturday, Vanderbilt’s Kumar Rocker had arguably the greatest pitching performance in the history of college baseball, striking out 19 batters and throwing a no-hitter in an elimination game:
unhittable [ənˈhidəb(ə)l] – adjective
— NCAA Baseball (@NCAACWS) June 9, 2019
Nothing Duke tried against him worked:
Kumar Rocker/Duke "Offensive Conference" Sequence (trying to mess with Rocker's rhythm).
My favorite part of the game.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2019
The 19-year-old, who was one of the top prospects for the 2018 MLB Draft but dropped due to signability concerns, still has two more full seasons in college to let the hype train build.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 1-3 against full-game moneylines.
My tracked plays went 1-3 and I finished down 1.14 units for the day.
It was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 15 cents overall against moneylines and saw the over that I played rise from 8.0 to 8.5
MLB Betting Model for Sunday, June 9
The model recommends eight full-game moneylines and six moneylines for the first-five innings (F5) on Sunday.
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Cardinals, Marlins, Orioles, Padres, Rangers, Rays, and Reds as full-game plays. It also likes the Angels, Marlins, Rays, and Reds, in addition the New York Mets and Washington Nationals as F5 plays.
I actually went against the model in selecting the Oakland Athletics against the spread vs. another lefty starting pitcher. Oakland will be throwing their best starter in Frankie Montas (2.83 ERA, 3.09 FIP) and looking to salvage a split in Texas after dropping both games of a doubleheader on Saturday.
The Rays also face a lefty starter today, and I’ll gladly back them at a short price in both halves with Blake Snell pitching.
Despite a 3.68 ERA, Snell has arguably pitched better in 2019 than he did in his Cy Young campaign last season. His strikeout minus walk rate is up 5% (27.7%) and his whiff rate has increased nearly the same amount; to a ridiculous 19.7%.
He’s throwing his fastball 12% less often (from 51% to 39%) than in 2018 by mostly increasing his curveball usage (from 20% to 30%).
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 8, 2019
I’ve enjoyed backing Sonny Gray this season, and I’ll also look to take him in both halves today. Gray’s 2.95 FIP is the result of a career best strikeout rate (over 10 batters per nine innings)
I show Noah Syndergaard and the Mets as a large first half favorite over the Rockies, projecting the Mets to win the first five innings by a full run. I have to lay that spread at a short price, despite the fact that Jeff Hoffman has pitched well in his recent outings.
In a small 2019 sample, Hoffman’s xwOBA (.388) and xwOBA on contact (.504), are each in the bottom 4% amongst all pitchers. However, he is a former first round pick and could have found his command overnight.
The 21-year-old Jose Suarez will be making his second-career start for the Angels, and will be doing so as a pretty sizable home favorite. He owns solid minor league numbers (351 K, 103 BB in 326 IP) and pitched well at a young age at Triple-A in 2018.
In typical Angels fashion, he’s an average-velocity lefty with a curveball and changeup. The deceptive off-speed pitch is his best weapon.
He can be close to an average pitcher right away. Meanwhile, Seattle’s Wade LeBlanc continues to get pounded by major leaguers; his .385 xwOBA and .438 xwOBA on contact are in the bottom 5% amongst all pitchers, and his FIP is 5.46.
Lastly, I played the Padres at home against the Nationals. Luis Perdomo will begin a bullpen game for the Padres, and I’m expecting them to pull out all of the stops to win this game and series today with an off day tomorrow before playing in San Francisco.
Bets (So Far) for June 9
- Cincinnati Reds (+126) Game Moneyline
- Cincinnati Reds (+120) F5 Moneyline
- Los Angeles Angels (-145) Game Moneyline
- New York Mets (-0.5, -120) F5 Spread
- Oakland Athletics (-1.5, -130) Game Spread
- San Diego Padres (+140) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-109) Game Moneyline
- Tampa Bay Rays (-133) F5 Moneyline
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/9
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.