Zerillo’s MLB Daily Betting Model, 6/29: Do the White Sox Have Value At Home?
Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher Ivan Nova (46).
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and first five (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the full slate of games on June 29 with his model below and highlights Red Sox-Yankees (1:10 p.m. ET) and White Sox-Twins (4:10 p.m. ET) as potential edges.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
On Saturday, the Red Sox and Yankees begin a two-game #LondonSeries. They’ll essentially play in a phone booth, with the centerfield wall and the gaps just over 380 feet away from home plate. And the players are predicting a bunch of offense. But there’s also an expanse of foul territory in this converted soccer stadium, leading to the potential for additional popup outs for pitchers. So which is the sharper side and total for the first ever MLB regular season game in Europe?
The Dodgers-Rockies game on Saturday was bonkers. Los Angeles led 5-2 going into the fifth inning before the Rockies added eight runs, knocking Hyun-Jin Ryu out of the game in the process:
Dodgers had a 5-2 entering the bottom of the 5th …
Then preceded to blow it for LA F5 bettorspic.twitter.com/GdGfXoRd2X
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) June 29, 2019
Ryu’s final line: 4 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 4 K. He had given up five runs total in his previous 10 starts combined.
The Rockies won 13-9.
Recapping Yesterday’s MLB Model
At writing yesterday, the model would have gone 4-1 against full-game moneylines and 1-2 against first-five innings moneylines (F5).
My plays went 4-1, and I finished up 1.64 units for the day.
It was a mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 22 cents against the Texas moneyline (+137 to +115), 10 cents against the Dodgers F5 spread (-140 to -150), and six cents against the under in Houston (-110 to -116), but I lost 14 cents against the Cincinnati moneyline (+103 to +117).
MLB Betting Model for Saturday, June 29
Today, the model recommends five full-game moneylines and four moneylines for the first-five innings (F5).
As of writing, the 3.5% trigger threshold officially marks the Athletics, Marlins, Pirates, Red Sox and White Sox as full-game plays. The model also likes the Marlins and White Sox in addition to the Orioles and Rays as F5 plays.
I have played the Red Sox moneyline against the Yankees in London.
In a home game, I would have Boston as a slight favorite, and at a neutral site this matchup is essentially a 53-47 lean to the Yankees. Based upon my projection, you’re getting about 20 cents of line value on the Red Sox.
I project the total at 11.1, assuming a run-scoring environment about 20% above league average, but I’m willing to adjust on the fly for Sunday depending on what happens on Saturday.
Seventy percent of the public is on the over, but more than half of the cash on the total has come in on under 11.5.
For now, I think it’s unwise to play the total. Both offenses seem confident about their ability to produce runs with the short fences, and I’d tend to think that MLB wants these games to be high-scoring shootouts for the London crowds.
Who knows what kind of baseballs MLB shipped over with these teams.
I have also played the White Sox against the Twins. On Friday, I discussed the Twins-Rays 18-inning game and the idea of fading those two winning teams until the All-Star break.
I don’t show any value in the Rays game today, even with Brendan McKay making his major league debut at a big price for the Rays, but I do see some value on the White Sox.
Michael Pineda hasn’t been able to sustain his early 2019 success over his past few outings, and his average fastball velocity was down to 91.4 mph on June 23 after sitting at 93 mph on June 18, 93.5 mph on June 13, and 94.7 mph on June 7.
His 2019 xFIP (4.64) is comparable to that of Ivan Nova (4.73), who has been victimized by an inflated BABIP (.334 vs. .305 career) and HR/FB ratio (19.5% vs. 14.2% career).
While the rest of baseball is throwing fewer sinkers and more four-seam fastballs, Nova has gone the other way, reducing the use of his four-seamer from 32% to 14%:
He has increased his curveball rate in June to 24%, throwing the pitch over 20% of the time in each of his past five starts after averaging a 15% usage rate on the curveball through May.
Lastly, I have played the Nationals game spread against the Tigers. I avoided playing the Tigers yesterday due to the Nationals’ prowess against southpaw pitching.
As a reminder, the Nationals rank 6th in wRC+ (118) vs. lefties but 23rd against righties (88 wRC+).
Today, they draw one of my favorite lefties to fade in Gregory Soto (8.66 ERA, 6.41 FIP, 6.00 xFIP, 5.89 SIERA), who has 14 strikeouts against 11 walks and four home runs allowed in 17 innings pitched.
I was also very impressed by Austin Voth in his first 2019 start for the Nationals. His fastball (94 mph) was up a few ticks from last season, touching 96 mph, and he consistently generated swinging strikes (17%) while flashing a sharp breaking ball.
I think it’s telling that he’s such a substantial favorite today.
Bets (So Far) for June 29
- Boston Red Sox (+133) Game Moneyline
- Chicago White Sox (+150) Game Moneyline
- Washington Nationals (-1.5, -120) Game Spread
- Under 9.5 (-115), Seattle at Houston
- Under 10.5 (-115), Cleveland at Baltimore
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 6/29
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.