AL Wild Card Game Yankees vs. Red Sox Player Prop Bets & Picks: Target Enrique Hernández, Aaron Judge (Tuesday, October 5)
New York Yankees/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge
Congratulations, baseball bettors! We’ve made it to the playoffs.
The MLB Player Props team here at The Action Network had a pretty good season, hitting 57% of our plays for a 9.3% ROI. A $100 bettor would be up $1,300 tailing all our prop plays this baseball season.
But we’re looking forward to the postseason. We’re working hard to continue hitting high percentage of our plays, and that effort begins tonight.
Over the course of the season, I’ve used the Action Labs Player Props tool to target strikeout totals for starting pitchers. That’s been very profitable, but our tool doesn’t see much value on either Gerritt Cole or Nathan Eovaldi’s strikeout totals tonight.
However, I’ve targeted two value plays in this massive American League Wild Card Game. As the Red Sox and Yankees get ready to continue their historic rivalry, I’m expecting big-time contributions from two guys — one in each lineup.
The AL Wild Card Game will be at Fenway Park tonight at 8:08 p.m. ET on ESPN. Currently, the Yankees are -125 favorites while the Red Sox are +105 underdogs, and the total sits at 8 but is slightly juiced to the under (u8 -115, o8 -105).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Enrique Hernández Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140)
I love this spot for Kiké.
He’s had a great second half, posting a .832 OPS since the All-Star break. However, most of his damage has been done at home, as he’s batting .270 with a .850 OPS at Fenway.
Plus, he’s one of the few MLB hitters to have success against Cole. Hernández is 5-for-11 lifetime vs. Cole with two doubles, and he’s posted a .840 xSLG on his batted balls.
However, what I find more impressive is that Hernández has never struck out against Cole. In 14 PAs, Hernández has whiffed just 11.1% of the time while drawing three walks. Considering Cole’s whopping 27.9 K-BB%, that’s a rather impressive feat.
Hernández has posted a .547 xwOBA in his career vs. Cole. That’s the highest of any batter vs. any starting pitcher in both wild-card games.
I think Hernández is worth a shot in tonight’s matchup, especially at +140 odds.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
The Yankees’ offense runs through Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge. They both have been raking, but Judge has been better as of late.
Since August 20, Judge is batting .325 while posting a 1.120 OPS. He’s smacked three doubles and four home runs during that 12-game stretch, wherein the Yankees are 9-3.
He’s also got a good matchup. He’s 9-for-23 lifetime against Eovaldi, and three of those hits went for extra bases. While that adds up to just a .391 BA and .609 SLG, he’s produced a whopping 101.7 mph average exit velocity on those batted balls. That’s produced a .465 xBA and a .770 xSLG.
If anyone is going to come up big in the AL Wild Card Game, it’s Judge. He’s already cashed over 1.5 total bases in four of his six games at Fenway this year, so I’m willing to bet that he does it again.