MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks for Saturday: 2 Plays, Including Cedric Mullins & Ryan Weathers (Saturday, August 28)
Getty Images. Pictured: Cedric Mullins (left) and Ryan Weathers.
- Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, Tanner McGrath has picked two players with value on Saturday night.
- Cedric Mullins looks poised for a big night, while Ryan Weathers' strikeout total has value vs. the Angels.
- Check out McGrath's picks and full breakdown below.
After taking a good, hard look at Saturday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player props tool, I’ve found one strikeout total on the card that provides value.
Plus, I’ve found one position player prop in an afternoon game that provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, so I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Cedric Mullins — Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105)
|Orioles vs. Rays||Orioles (+150)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
I’ve never been high on Michael Wacha. I think he’s one of the worst starting pitchers in the league and ranks among the bottom four percent of qualified pitchers in the following statistics:
- xERA (6.15)
- xBA (.296)
- xSLG (.513)
- xwOBA (.370)
Today, Wacha gets to face Cedric Mullins, who already hits better against right-handed pitching (.936 OPS vs. RHPs, .836 OPS vs. LHPs) and at home (.986 OPS at home; .814 OPS away), and he has lit up Wacha in the past.
In 10 lifetime plate appearances against Wacha, Mullins is 5-for-9 with four extra-base hits (two doubles, a triple and a home run). In terms of expected statistics, Mullins has slashed .657 xBA/.714 xwOBA/.986 xSLG/ in those at-bats.
Considering Wacha has posted a 9.85 ERA in August while Mullins has collected 13 total bases over his last five games, I’m giving the advantage to Mullins today. I’m happy to play his over total bases at anything better than even money.
Ryan Weathers — Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|Padres vs. Angels||Padres (-124)|
|Time||9:08 p.m. ET|
The Angels strike out a lot and have struggled this season, but Weathers doesn’t strike guys out and the plus-money number provides value.
This season, Weathers has hit over 3.5 strikeouts in just six of his 23 appearances this season — a 26% hit rate. The left-hander’s 18% whiff rate ranks in just the second percentile among qualified pitchers, and he’s striking out just 6.88 batters per nine innings.
The other big issue here is that Weathers is not a starting pitcher; he’s a reliever, which means he’s not going to pitch very deep into this game. Weathers averages just 3 1/3 innings per appearance, and I wouldn’t expect him to pitch deep into the game today.
Given Weathers’ pitch-to-contact tendencies and his low pitch count, our Action Labs Player Props tool is projecting Weathers at just 3.3 strikeouts today. Given the plus money price, there’s plenty of value on his under today.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10