Red Sox vs. Rays Props, Picks, Predictions: Eduardo Rodriguez’s Strikeout Total Worth Targeting In ALDS Game 1 (October 7)
Getty Images. Pictured: Eduard Rodriguez
- Eduardo Rodriguez's strikeout total is a hot prop on today's MLB slate.
- Our MLB analyst sees value on Rodriguez's total for tonight's matchup between the Red Sox and Rays.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of the props to play from today's playoff games.
On the first day of Divisional Series action, our Action Labs Player Props tool loves two pitchers.
We’ll be backing the starting pitchers for both the underdogs, where our projections show a big edge over the market.
The Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a 1-10 scale, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Eduardo Rodriguez Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-165)
|Red Sox vs. Rays||Red Sox (+130)|
|Time||8:07 p.m. ET|
The market consensus for E-Rod tonight is 5.5 Ks, and there is value at that number. However, I’m much more comfortable paying the juice and betting this line instead.
Rodriguez has struggled this season, but he’s been excellent in the three true outcomes. He allows very few home runs (1.08 HR/9), doesn’t walk batters (2.68 BB/9), and more importantly, he strikes out a lot of hitters (10.56 K/9).
In fact, Rodriguez posted a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low walk rate. As such, he’s posted excellent expected statistics this season, including a 3.32 FIP and a 3.42 xFIP.
Unfortunately, Rodriguez has been very unlucky. In the first half, he paired a 3.37 xFIP with a 5.52 ERA. However, we’ve finally started to see the positive regression we’ve expected for him all season.
Rodriguez posted a 3.33 ERA in August and then a 3.19 ERA in September, on his way to a 3.71 second-half ERA (compared to a 5.52 first-half ERA).
But back to this strikeout total: Rodriguez has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in 25 of his 32 starts this season. That 78% hit rate implies -357 odds on the over, making the -165 line justifiable.
Moreover, he gets to face the strikeout-happy Rays. Against southpaws, the Rays have struck out at the third-highest rate in MLB this season (25.6%) and the fourth-highest rate over the past 30 days (26%). Predictably, Rodriguez has struck out at least four batters in three of his four starts against Tampa this season, including both starts at the Trop:
- 6/22 @ TB: 6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K
- 8/10 vs. TB: 5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 8 K
- 9/2 @ TB: 6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K
- 9/7 vs. TB: 3.2 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 3 K
The Action Labs Player Props tool has Rodriguez projected at 5.8 strikeouts tonight, providing a 7% edge over the 4.5 number DraftKings is offering us.
Action Labs Grade: 7/10
Lance Lynn Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+100)
|White Sox vs. Astros||White Sox (+110)|
|Time||4:07 p.m. ET|
I hate fading the Astros, as they’re the most disciplined lineup in the league and strike out at the lowest rate in MLB. Houston paces MLB in zone contact rate, chase contact rate and whiff rate.
However, Houston’s strikeout rate vs. RHPs increased slightly in the last month of the season, and Lynn is perfectly positioned to take advantage of that.
Back on June 19, the Astros crushed Lynn to the tune of six runs on eight hits. However, Lynn managed to notch six strikeouts in only four innings, which is a rather impressive feat considering the Astros’ abilities.
But it was just another night for Lynn. Lance has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in 20 of his 28 starts this season. That’s a 71% hit rate on a prop that’s being offered at even money.
Moreover, the projection market adores Lynn tonight. FanGraphs’ SaberSim projections have Lynn’s strikeout total at 5.4, while our Action Labs Player Props tool projects him for a whopping 6.6.
Those projections give us a 30% edge over this line, and it’s our top-rated MLB prop play of the day as a result.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10