MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Max Fried’s Strikeout Total & Trea Turner’s Total Bases (October 9)
Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Trea Turner
After a massive, 4-0 day for the Action Network Player Prop team Friday, we’re back with two more props for Saturday’s divisional series games.
The Action Labs Player Props tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include those grades underneath my explanations.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Max Fried Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)
|Braves vs. Brewers||Braves (+105)|
|Time||5:07 p.m. ET|
Over the past 30 days, Milwaukee has struck out at the ninth-highest rate in MLB vs. LHPs (23.6%). The offense can be boom or bust, but Charlie Morton busted them Friday to the tune of nine strikeouts.
Like Morton, Fried has put together a much-improved second half. After posting a 4.71 ERA and a 4.04 FIP through his first 72 innings, he dropped those numbers to a 1.74 ERA and 2.74 FIP over the past 92.
He did miss some time back in April due to an injury, and his starts prior to his time off skewed his season-long numbers. But the point is: Fried has been nails during Atlanta’s playoff push.
Fried has posted a 0.90 WHIP over his past 15 starts, and the Braves have won 12 of those appearances.
But more importantly, Fried has failed to pitch six innings just once during that stretch. His ability to pitch deep in games creates a lot of strikeout opportunities.
As such, Fried has cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in 20 of his 28 starts this season, including eight of his last 10. He has yet to face the Brewers this season, but the Action Labs Player Props tool projects Fried’s strikeout total at 5.9 tonight, creating plenty of value in backing Fried in Game 2.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Trea Turner Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
|Dodgers vs. Giants||Dodgers (-115)|
|Time||9:07 p.m. ET|
For the sake of transparency, this game doesn’t jump out to me from a prop perspective. Kevin Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts is the Action Labs Player Props tool play, but he’s failed to hit this number in two of three starts against the Dodgers this season.
If I wanted to play this game, Trea Turner is the player I trust the most. He’s cashed his bases prop in eight of his last 10 and 17 of his last 30. While he went hitless Friday night, he had two base knocks in the Wild Card Game and ended the regular season on a 17-game hit streak.
Lifetime against Gausman, Turner is 6-for-18 with a .645 xSLG off a 93.3 mph average exit velocity.
While this game is difficult from a handicapping perspective, I’m willing to make a small play on Turner’s base total.