MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks: Should You Fade Cy Young Favorite Robbie Ray? (Monday, September 20)
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Robbie Ray
It’s a brand new week with 13 MLB games on the slate tonight. There’s tons of value to be found in the MLB props market, and using the Action Labs Player Props tool, I’ve targeted one strikeout total that I believe provides value.
Plus, there’s a position player prop that also provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.
The Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Robbie Ray Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+110)
|Blue Jays vs. Rays||Blue Jays (-130)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
It’s tough fading Robbie Ray, especially when he’s a top candidate for the AL Cy Young award. However, 8.5 strikeouts juiced to the over is a bit too high for my liking.
Ray’s hit over 8.5 strikeouts in 14 of his 29 starts. While that’s an impressive amount, it’s also just a hit rate 48%, giving us -107 implied odds on the under. Moreover, projections are pointing to the under in this spot as well, with Action Labs projecting him at 7.9 and FanGraphs at 7.63.
But let’s take a look at the Rays’ offense, which has a reputation for striking out.
Tampa’s lineup has multiple hitters that mash southpaws. Guys like Manuel Margot, Randy Arozarena, Yandy Díaz and Mike Zunino all hit better against the left side. Specifically, Zunino, who has a whopping 1.288 OPS and 243 wRC+ against LHPs this season.
Moreover, the Rays are striking out at just a league-average rate vs. LHPs over the past 30 days (21.6 K%, 14th in MLB) while posting sky-high offensive numbers during the stretch (130 wRC+, 5th in MLB).
All-in-all, I think there’s solid value in fading Ray tonight, and I’ll happily do so at plus-money.
Action Labs Grade: 9/10
Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
|Cardinals vs. Brewers||Cardinals (+185)|
|Time||7:40 p.m. ET|
The Cardinals have ripped off eight straight victories. Paul Goldschmidt has been a big part of that.
During the win streak, Goldy is 11-for-28 with five doubles and two homers. He’s also walked seven times to just four strikeouts, recorded five RBI and scored 13 runs.
Goldschmidt has done it all for the Cardinals this week, but he’s building on an excellent month. During September, Goldschmidt is batting .322 with a 1.047 OPS, including nine extra-base hits.
As such, Goldschmidt has cashed over 1.5 total bases in 17 of his last 30 games, good for a 57% hit rate during the stretch.
Today, he faces Freddy Peralta. Peralta’s been shaky recently, posting an xFIP over four in the second half with slightly decreased velcoity. After striking out seven or more batters in 12 of his first 13 starts, he’s hit that number just three times in his last nine outings.
However, Peralta’s always struggled against Goldschmidt. In 13 career PAs, Goldschmidt is 6-for-11 with four extra base hits, a 98.3 mph average exit velocity, and a 1.171 xSLG.
With Peralta cooling off and Goldschmidt heating up, I like Goldschmidt to knock around Peralta again in this matchup. And at +130 odds, I think there’s a lot of value there as well.