MLB Prop Bets for Friday: Over/Under on Marco Estrada, Ross Stripling Strikeout Props?
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marco Estrada.
- It's a short eight-game follow-up to Opening Day, but there are still a couple MLB prop bets offering value.
- We're picking the over/under on strikeout props for the Athletics' Marco Estrada and Dodgers' Ross Stripling.
It was an aggravating start to the season in the world of props.
Trevor Cahill struck out just three batters in six innings, falling one short of a push, while Kyle Freeland struck out four batters in the first three innings but managed just one over his final four innings, ultimately pushing. Come on, Kyle, you couldn’t manage two Ks down the stretch against the Marlins? Be better for us next time, please.
Oh well. We have a new slate on tap and more props offering value — let’s just hope they go slightly over instead of slightly under.
The two props we’re highlighting for Friday are featured in the following games:
- Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics: 10:07 p.m. ET
- Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers: 10:10 p.m. ET
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 5 to 10. All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Athletics SP Marco Estrada
THE PICK: Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-114)
While strikeouts keep going up and up and up every year, Estrada isn’t part of that trend. His 6.45 K/9 ranked 80th out of 88 pitchers with at least 140 innings pitched in 2018. And in his start in Japan last week, Estrada struck out only one fella over five innings.
The 35-year-old does not tend to mow down hitter after hitter.
With that said, oddsmakers haven’t set the bar too high for him on Friday, with an over/under of just 3.5 strikeouts. He faces an Angels lineup that did jack squat on Opening Day and is itching to break out against this fly-ball-pitcher. Their lineup also does not strike out much. FantasyLabs projects their lineup to have an average strikeout per at bat rate below 0.20, the second-lowest of the slate behind the Astros.
A pitcher who doesn’t strike guys out vs. lineup that doesn’t strike out much = not a lot of strikeouts. First grade math, folks.
We’re projecting just 2.9 strikeouts, making under 3.5 a solid choice.
Dodgers SP Ross Stripling
THE PICK: Over 5 Strikeouts (-114)
Stripling broke out big time in 2018. In his third season, he posted a career best 3.02 ERA, 1.62 BB/9 and — most importantly — 10.03 K/9. He turned 29 over the offseason, so he’s not exactly a young guy and is still someone who is relatively unknown to casual fans.
On Thursday, the Dodgers clobbered the D-Backs and broke an Opening Day record with eight home runs. Tonight, Stripling and his foe Robbie Ray could both be piling up strikeouts on a March night in Chavez Ravine.
Stripling’s over/under is five on the nose, which, as we learned with Freeland, is prime push territory. However, we’re projecting Stripling punches out 7.3 — more than a 40% difference than the 5.2 implied by his odds.
That big difference makes it the strongest play of the day in our props tool.