MLB Player Props: Can Zack Wheeler Sit Down 7 Reds?

MLB Player Props: Can Zack Wheeler Sit Down 7 Reds? article feature image
Credit:

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Zack Wheeler

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/under for Zack Wheeler.

I hope your weekend went well and I hope you took the strikeout props, as both of Saturday’s unders cashed and Justin Bailey took you to the Promised Land yesterday by fading a man with his own last name … ruthless!

Here’s to hoping we can piece together a long winning streak!

MLB Player Props – Monday, April 29

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 3:15 p.m. ET. View live odds for individual games here.

Mets SP Zack Wheeler

The Pick: Under 6 (+110)

Zack Wheeler is looking like Nolan Ryan this season, as his 97.4 mph average fastball velocity is right at the top of the list among starting pitchers. It’s also more than a full mph faster than any other season in his career. We’re talking some serious cheese, here.

This stinky Limburger has helped him strike out 10.01 batters per nine innings this season — nearly a full strikeout more than his career high.

Last time on the bump, he made Swiss out of the Phillies lineup, going seven scoreless and striking out 11 batters — one shy of his career high set way back in his 2013 rookie season.

So if Wheeler is wheeling and dealing, why would we be fading him tonight? That’s because the Reds have a stingy lineup.

This season, they’ve actually struck out the 12th most among the league’s 30 teams at 24.8%. However, their lineup tonight ranks the second-lowest on the slate per FantasyLabs’ SO/AB stat at just 20.0%.

The only batter in their lineup who has struck out more than 30% of the time against righties is Scott Schebler. Everyone else is below 25% on the year. If we go back even further and look at last year’s stats to get a larger sample size, three of the Reds’ first four hitters in the lineup (Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Jesse Winker) have strikeout rates below 15% against righties.

We’re projecting 5.4 strikeouts for Wheeler, but the implied odds factoring in the juice on this over/under come out to 6.8. With plus-money on the under, this is a strong bet, but I wouldn’t touch it if gets past -115.

How would you rate this article?