MLB Player Props: Can Thor Hammer Out 8 Strikeouts vs. Brewers?
Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Noah Syndergaard.
- Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/unders for Dakota Hudson and Noah Syndergaard.
While Corey Kluber was not at his best yesterday, walking three men and allowing three earned runs in just five innings, he was able to bust my chops and eke out the over on his 5.5 strikeout total by punching out six Astros. Hey, I’m not going to back off my stance, though. That was a good bet in my book and I’d make it again.
Today, we’re betting on another elite pitcher and a young fellow who many of you may not be familiar with, yet.
MLB Player Props – Saturday, April 27
Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 11:15 a.m. ET. View live odds for individual games here.
Cardinals SP Dakota Hudson
The Pick: Under 4.5 (+100)
In his four starts this season, Dakota Hudson has struck out three, four, five and six hitters — 4.5 seems like a very fair over/under for the youngster.
However, considering the fact that the over is juiced up to -130, I believe sportsbooks are too bullish on the Cardinals starter.
This year, the Reds’ strikeout rate of 25.3% ranks 11th in the league, but the lineup they’re rolling out today shouldn’t be as whiffy. Per the SO/AB metric in the FantasyLabs MLB Models, which accounts for lineup order and handedness, the Reds have the eighth-lowest strikeout rate at 22.3%. The top three hitters in their order — Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Jesse Winker — all strike out well below league average.
Although Hudson’s K/9 of 8.84 is respectable, he’s struggled mightily when it comes to walks and home runs this year. With a stiff breeze blowing out to left field, we could see some balls leaving the yard. Sharps are on Cincinnati, too.
Let me just put it this way: This over/under is 4.5 (over -130) at one book and 4.0 (under -180) at another. We’re projecting just 3.7 strikeouts for Hudson. Take the under 4.5 anywhere you can get it. At plus money, I love this bet.
Mets SP Noah Syndergaard
The Pick: Under 7.5 (-116)
Thor is off to a rough start in 2019, boasting an ERA just shy of 6.00 through his first five starts. Weird things can happen in small samples, though, and that’s been the case with Syndergaard.
Nearly 50% of the men he’s let on base have scored, which is a number even the worst pitchers wouldn’t post over a large period of time. His K/9 of 10.55 and BB/9 of just 2.17 suggest that his ERA should be right around 3.00, not 6.00.
Nevertheless, we will still be betting against him today, at least when it comes to strikeouts.
With a strikeout over/under of 7.5, Syndergaard needs to do something he’s done just once in five starts this year: Strike out at least eight hitters. And last year he managed the feat just four times in 25 starts.
Although the Brewers rank near the top of the league in strikeouts this year, history is still against Syndergaard reaching this lofty number. In fact, we’re projecting just 5.9 strikeouts for the long-locked righty.