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MLB Player Props: Can Spencer Grab the Bull by the Horns?

Credit:

Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Detroit Tigers pitcher Spencer Turnbull (16)

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/under for Spencer Turnbull.
  • Let's look at where the value lies with this MLB prop bet.

Last night began poorly when Jake Odorizzi imploded in the 4th inning after a strong start. When I saw that Brandon Woodruff had the bases loaded with no outs in the third inning, I shut my computer down and cried myself to sleep.

However, I woke up this morning to a pleasant surprise when I saw Woodruff (sort of) got out of that jam and ended up striking out seven Angels in six innings of work. I suppose that counts as taking them to the woodshed.

It’s officially the end of my losing streak, though, and the start of a brand new winning streak that will include many more woodsheds.

MLB Player Props, Thursday April 11

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. View live odds here.

Tigers SP Spencer Turnbull

The pick: Over 5 (-125)

You’ve probably never heard of this guy before. You’ve probably never heard of a lot of guys on the Tigers, for that matter. However, he could be a nice little hidden gem on this garbage squad.

Last start, Turnbull struck out 10 batters in six innings, featuring some nasty stuff as seen below.

He has a strong heater and this nice slider as an out pitch. Today, he faces the 2019 Indians … who are really bad at hitting.

They rank near the bottom of every statistical category except strikeouts, which they have done more than any other team (29.7% SO/AB). Better yet, their lineup features Eric Stamets today, who is 2-28 with 16 strikeouts.

The weather in Detroit will be similar to yesterday’s, with cool temperatures and a strong wind blowing in from left field.

If Turnbull can keep himself out of trouble by avoiding walks, he should be able to go deep into this ballgame. We’re projecting 7.4 strikeouts for him, making over 5 a good choice.

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