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MLB Player Props: Can Michael Pineda Sit Down Six Astros?

Credit:

Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michael Pineda.

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on tonight's strikeout over/under for Michael Pineda.

Look, I don’t mind if I get beat. Happens every day pretty much, including yesterday’s Jake Arrieta strikeout prop under. However, you’re going to have to take the bat off your shoulders next time, Mets. Five of Arrieta’s seven strikeouts were looking, which is just ridiculous.

Even my mom used to tell me to protect the plate with two strikes, which was one of the main reasons I reached the majors. I used to crowd the plate so the strike zone almost disappeared. Pitchers hate that. That’s the way I played, 100% all the time. Baseball was life — and I was good at it. Real good. And then, one day — a high fast one and pow, lights went out.

Ahh wait, sh*t. That was Mr. Mertle from The Sandlot. I still have my vision, but never made it past high school baseball. The last thing you’d catch me do was strike out looking, though, because if Mama saw a ꓘ on the scorecard next to my name … bye-bye PS2. Bye-bye AIM. Bye-bye dinner.

MLB Player Props – Tuesday, April 23

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

Twins SP Michael Pineda

The Pick: Under 5 (+100)

The Twins are off to a hot start this year, as they lead the AL Central with a 13-7 record. Michael Pineda is 2-1 in four starts after returning from a long injury hiatus, but his ERA of 5.30 leaves much to be desired. It’ll be tough to lower tonight against the Astros, too, as they’ve scored six runs per game over their past ten contests.

More importantly, Pineda doesn’t seem to have his strikeout stuff back yet. He posted a 10.61 K/9 in 2016, but that number is below 8 on the young 2019 season.

Moreover, the Astros’ strikeout rate of 19.4% ranks 27th in the majors, and that’s no fluke. Last year, they struck out 19.5% of the time, which was good for 29th in the league. It’s tough to strike the ‘Stros out, and just five of 22 opposing starters have posted six or more strikeouts against them this year.

I was burned on an “under 5 strikeout” prop last night, but I’m getting right back on the wagon. I doubt Houston will sit back and watch strike three after strike three cross the plate like the Mets did last night … they want their dinners, don’t they?

I particularly like the even-money payout, but would probably bet it up to the -130 or -140 range. We’re projecting just 3.5 strikeouts for Pineda.

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