Zerillo’s MLB Projected Odds & Picks for Wednesday (Oct. 14)

Zerillo’s MLB Projected Odds & Picks for Wednesday (Oct. 14) article feature image
Credit:

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Altuve

After five championship series games, the Braves and Rays appear to be headed for a World Series collision course. Prior to Wednesday’s contests, my championship series odds suggest that we will have that World Series matchup nearly 72% of the time; with a Dodgers-Rays matchup occurring just 25% of the time.

Neither championship series is over — I still give the Astros a 3% chance of winning four straight, even though it has only been done once before in the MLB playoffs (2004 Red Sox) with a team down three games.

The Dodgers have a 26% chance of winning four of their next five games — a difficult, but not impossible task when you have lapped the league in run differential (+409) over the past two years of regular season play.

There is plenty of actionable value up for grabs if you approach these games and series on an individual basis, checking both series moneyline prices and game moneyline prices between each contest.

As a result, certain playoff series are only worth betting on a game-by-game basis, while others offer more significant value in the series market.

Where can we find actionable value on Wednesday?


Braves vs. Dodgers Game 3 Odds

Julio Urias vs. Kyle Wright

Dodgers Odds -195 [Bet Now]
Braves Odds +165 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9.5 (-120/+100) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 6:05 p.m. ET
TV FS1

Odds as of Wednesday at 12 p.m. and via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up, AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.

Model Projection (full projections here)

  • Braves probability: 61.7% (Fair odds of -161)
  • Dodgers probability: 38.3% (+161)
  • Projected total: 8.57

As I mentioned at the top of this piece, I set the Dodgers’ current series chances at 26% — implied odds of +285 — but they are generally listed around +200 (implied 33.3%) in the betting market at present. That’s an extremely negative EV (expected value) bet, and books are just trying to take your money. Please don’t let them.

There is still value on the Braves series price, listed around -225 (implied 69%) up 2-0, but I already have Braves series tickets from before Game 1 (+200) and Game 2 (+100) — and I’m not adding anything personally.

The moneyline prices for Game 3 – both F5 and full game – align with my projections, and I don’t see value on either team.

I do show slight value on the Under, however, and I would bet Under 9.5 at -106 or better, or Under 10 at -118 or better. Even though I can currently get even money at 9.5, I’m willing to wait for a 10 to pop up.

The Dodgers pushed the Braves bullpen to the brink on Tuesday, forcing Chris Martin and Mark Melancon to pitch for the second consecutive day following 29 pitches from Tyler Matzek, who has been as dominant as any pitcher in the 2020 playoffs (5.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R. 1 BB, 9 K).

Atlanta needs length out of Kyle Wright, who has obviously struggled to this point in his MLB career (5.9 FIP, 5.33 xFIP). But as I discussed on Tuesday, Wright is part of Atlanta’s stable of high-pedigree arms, and the former No. 5 overall pick (2017) has turned in a corner in his past four outings (21 K, 8 BB) — all quality starts — including his playoff win over the Marlins on Oct. 8 (6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 7 K).

The righty has a five-pitch mix (fastball, sinker, changeup, curveball, slider), but only the slider has returned a positive pitch value to this point in his career:

You can likely attribute Wright’s late-season success to increased reliance on both his curveball and sinker and a change to his positioning on the mound.

Notice, in the video above, how Wright is positioned all the way on the first-base side of the pitching rubber — to the point where he is almost past the rubber.

Now, here’s a video of Wright from 2019, attempting to throw a sinker to lefty Adam Eaton:

Notice how both his back foot and overall body are much more centered, relative to the plate and pitching rubber?

Wright hasn’t had a ton of MLB success, but he has been downright horrible against left-handed hitters (.305/.406/.576 triple slash, .412 wOBA, 23 K, 20 BB in 29 IP).

Over his past four starts, those numbers have improved dramatically against opposite-handed hitting, and the Vandy product might have finally found his big league footing, literally.

Dodgers starter Julio Urias, who arrived in the bigs way back in 2016, has been highly effective to this point in his career (3.47 FIP, 4.37 xFIP). Urias also shows reverse splits, meaning that he has been more effective against right-handed hitters (career .281 wOBA) than lefties (.308).

But Urias tweaked his pitch mix in 2020, throwing fewer sliders (-11.8% vs. 2019) and fastballs in exchange for plenty more curveballs (+18.8%), which has served to balance his profile:

The Braves offense has been significantly better against righties (126 wRC+) than lefties (101 wRC+) this season, so perhaps seeing Urias and Kershaw on back to back days could throw them into an offensive funk.

That angle lends itself to the Under — as does a potentially improved Wright.

But given the Braves’ lack of late-inning relief options for Wednesday, I’ll look to play the middle again, and try to live bet Over 5 after a few well-pitched innings.

Recommended Bets

  • Braves Series Moneyline (play to -225)
  • Under 10 (1 unit, play to -118) or Under 9.5 (1u, play to -106)
  • Live Middle, Over 5 (0.5u)

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Rays vs. Astros Game 4 Odds

Tyler Glasnow vs. Zack Greinke

Rays Odds -145 [Bet Now]
Astros Odds +125 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 8 (-120/+100) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 8:40 p.m. ET
TV TBS

Odds as of Wednesday at 12 p.m. and via PointsBet, where you can get $250 FREE instantly after signing up AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.

Model Projection (full projections here)

  • Rays probability: 58.9% (Fair odds of -143)
  • Astros probability: 41.1% (+143)
  • Projected total: 7.29

The Rays have a 97% chance of advancing to the World Series with a 3-0 series lead and any sort of collapse would be historic.

Not only are the 2004 Red Sox the only team to overcome a 3-0 series deficit, but they are also the only team to even force a Game 7 from this spot.

Nine NHL teams have forced a Game 7 from a 3-0 series hole — four advanced. No NBA team has ever accomplished the feat.

In other words, the most maligned baseball team, possibly ever, still has a chance to rewrite a part of their legacy.

That being said, the Astros are obviously feeling the pressure. Jose Altuve has gone full Chuck Knoblauch over the past two days:

I don’t see projected moneyline value on the Rays for Game 4, but I do see a fair price on their moneyline up to -143, and I’m going to play them to complete the sweep against Greinke — who was pushed back and ultimately underwhelming when he did start in the ALDS.

Greinke has allowed at least three runs or more in eight of his past nine starts, and any additional hint of arm trouble should be extremely concerning.

The Rays need a big effort from Tyler Glasnow in Game 4, given the current depth of their bullpen (almost certainly without Fairbanks, Loup, and Thompson on Wednesday) after three days of heavy usage to build up a commanding lead.

Following a dominant 2019 campaign, Tyler Glasnow continued to improve in 2020, increasing both his strikeout-minus-walk rate and whiff rate by two percent, while lowering his xFIP from 2.94 to 2.75, even though his xERA increased from 2.3 to 3.13 as a result of additional hard contact.

The righty increased his curveball usage from 29.2% to 34.8%, likely on the recommendation of Tampa Bay’s analytical scouting staff.

He was sharp on two days rest against the Yankees (2.1 IP, 0 R, 2 BB, 2 K), while turning over their lineup once, and he’s back on full rest for Game 4.

I see projected value both on the F5 under 4.5 (to -111) and Under 8 (to -105) or Under 8.5 (to -118) for Game 4.

I played the F5 under, and I’ll attempt to wait for Under 8.5 to popup again.

Recommended Bets

  • Rays Moneyline (Risk 1u, play to -140)
  • F5 Under 4.5 (0.5u, play to -111)
  • Under 8 (0.5u, play to -118)

Recommended Bets (Oct. 14)

  • Braves Series Moneyline (play to -225)
  • Braves/Dodgers, Under 10 (play to -118) or Under 9.5 (play to -106)
  • Astros/Rays, F5 Under 4.5 (0.5u, play to -111)
  • Astros/Rays, Under 8.5 (0.5u, play to -118) or Under 8; (play to -105)
  • Rays Moneyline (Risk 1u, play to -140)

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