Tuesday MLB Playoff Odds, Picks & Predictions: Yankees vs. Rays Game 2 (Oct. 6)
Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Glasnow
- The New York Yankees' series-opening win over the Tampa Bay Rays was closer than the final score would suggest.
- Now, the Yankees will send out Deivi Garcia to make his postseason debut opposite of Tyler Glasnow.
- MLB betting analyst Michael Arinze explains why the value is on the Tampa Bay moneyline.
Yankees vs. Rays Game 2 Odds
|Yankees Odds||+110 [Bet Now]|
|Rays Odds||-131 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8.5 (-115/-105) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
The New York Yankees slugged four home runs en route to a 9-3 victory in Game 1 against the Tampa Bay Rays. The game was actually closer than the scoreline suggests as the Rays trailed the Yankees by one run going into the ninth inning, but that was when things got out of hand: New York took advantage of two walks that paved the way to a five-run inning featuring a Giancarlo Stanton grand slam.
New York has elected to start rookie right-hander Deivi Garcia in Game 2 while the Rays will counter with Tyler Glasnow.
It’s unclear whether the Yankees always intended for Garcia to start Game 2 — I wonder if they would have made the same decision had they lost Game 1. Regardless, this will be Garcia’s first time facing the Rays, and perhaps that’s something that can work to his advantage.
However, I’d have to think that at some point nerves could settle in and he could be vulnerable particularly in the early innings.
Deivi Garcia’s Postseason Debut
Garcia went 3-2 in the regular season with a 4.98 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His 4.15 FIP suggests that he was a bit unlucky in his runs allowed.
To his credit, Garcia provided length for the Yankees even as a young pitcher. He averaged 5.2 innings per start and pitched at least six innings in four of his six starts. One factor that’s propelled Garcia’s ability to pitch deep into games has been his low walk rate (1.57 BB/9), but what I find interesting is that batters were able to hit .252 against him — above the .248 league average.
Per FanGraphs, Garcia has four pitches in his arsenal: A fastball (59.6%), a changeup (16.9%), a curveball (14.5%) and a slider (9%).
Despite topping out around only 92 mph with his fastball, Garcia is still able to create deception with a changeup that’s about 12 mph slower. The difference in velocity makes his fastball look even faster to hitters as they have to adjust their timing to guard against the changeup. Both pitches seem to help one another, and it’s no surprise that both graded out as above-average according to FanGraphs.
In Game 2, Garcia will face a Rays team that’s scoring eight runs above average against the changeup, which ranks them third in all of baseball.
Tyler Glasnow Is Back & Healthy
Glasnow was having one heck of 2019 season until forearm tightness in May landed him on the injury list for almost four months. Glasnow returned last September but was put on a pitch count over his next four starts and never exceeded 66 pitches in those outings.
While Glasnow did pitch in the postseason against the Astros, he wasn’t nearly as effective as he was prior to his injury, when he started last season 6-1 with a 1.86 ERA.
Now in 2020, Glasnow has made every one of his starts and finished the regular season at 5-1 with 4.08 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. However, Glasnow’s 3.66 FIP suggests that he’s been even better — batters hit only .199 against him, but that number would rise to .281 on balls put in to play.
Glasnow throws three pitches: A four seamer (60.6%), a curveball (34.8%) and a changeup (4.7%). He’s still able to maintain his effectiveness largely due to a plus-96 mph fastball.
This current Yankees lineup is hitting only .179 against him with a .279 OBP and .355 SLG. He’s performed well against New York this season, and Tampa Bay even won his last two outings in which he was matched up against Yankees ace Gerrit Cole.
While the Yankees probably feel that they’re operating from a position of strength after winning Game 1, the decision to start Garcia strikes me as a bit of a reach considering there are veterans like Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ on the roster.
My model, which uses an expected FIP to project runs allowed, lists the Rays as a -147 favorite.
Even after their Game 1 loss, I still like this Rays’ bullpen, which finished the regular season tied for first with a 3.6 WAR rating while the Yankees were ranked 21st with a 0.7 WAR. Tampa Bay’s bullpen also finished third in the league with a 3.37 ERA and fourth with 3.65 FIP while New York relievers were 16th with a 4.51 ERA and 20th with a 4.69 FIP.
PointsBet is offering Tampa Bay at -130, which gives me a bit of an edge in this matchup. I’ll back the Rays on the moneyline and expect them to tie this series at one game apiece.
PICK: Rays -130 (up to -140)