MLB Playoffs Sharp Betting, Model Projections, Expert Picks: Cardinals vs. Padres, Yankees vs. Indians (Wednesday, Sept. 30)
Photo by Ron Schwane/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco and Roberto Perez
Wednesday’s eight-game MLB Postseason slate is well underway, but as the market continues to take shape relating to some of today’s later starts, we’re starting to get a better idea of how sharps and big bettors are playing some of these games, as well as which ones show edges based on our model’s projections, and which have attracted our own MLB betting experts.
All of that information has been made especially easy to digest thanks to our new MLB PRO Report feature. So let’s take a look at a pair of upcoming matchups showing off those betting signals.
Data as of 2:40 p.m. ET. For immediate access to our new MLB PRO Report for every Wednesday, start a Free Trial today! You’ll also get:
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Cardinals vs. Padres PRO Report
The Padres are still fairly sizable favorites in this matchup, but thanks to some big bets on the Cardinals this line has come down pretty considerably. And our model agrees with the line move.
Bettors have been split 50-50 on this moneyline. The distribution of money, however, has been anything but.
While it’s unlikely for this figure to hold at such a high number (since it came from an early update), the Cardinals have generated 97% of the actual money hitting the matchup, meaning bigger bettors are taking the underdogs (find updated money percentages here). And while big bets can technically come from anyone, they’re far more likely to come from sharps, making a discrepancy as large as this one worth noting as a hint toward the professional side.
Big Money edge: Cardinals
As for why those big, potentially sharp, bettors are taking the Cards, perhaps they’re in agreement with our model — created by Sean Zerillo — that St. Louis should be listed at a much smaller number.
Zerillo’s projections suggest the Cardinals’ true price should be more like +113.
Model Projections edge: Cardinals
Yankees vs. Indians Odds, PRO Report
Even though we’ve tracked some sharp action hitting the Indians, this line has nudged toward the Game 1 winners — perhaps a result of the amount of money they’re receiving. Our model and experts, however, are finding value at the plus-money price on the Indians.
A Sports Insights Bet Signal was triggered on the Indians early on, confirming at least one wave of sharp action hitting Cleveland since this line opened. We’ve yet to receive the same confirmation on the opposite side, which is why the Indians take the edge in sharp action.
Sharp Action edge: Indians
As mentioned, even with the Indians attracting some early pro action, this line has moved a bit toward New York. Why? Probably because the Yanks have drawn almost all the early money on this matchup, meaning they — like the Cardinals — are drawing action from bigger bettors.
Big Money edge: Yankees
While bigger bets may be landing on New York, our projection is more in line with the early sharp move that hit this line. In fact, Zerillo’s model makes the Indians the slight favorites at -103, giving value to them at a plus-money price.
Model Projections edge: Indians
Right in line with our model, our experts are taking the value play here. Three of our most profitable MLB bettors have taken the Indians.
You can follow all of our experts’ picks in the Action App.
Top Experts edge: Indians