MLB Playoffs Prop Bets & Picks: Buster Posey, Julio Urías Highlight Top Plays for Game 5
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias #7 of the Los Angeles Dodgers.
- The Dodgers and Giants meet for the 24th and final time this season in Game 5 of their NLDS series.
- In a must-win matchup, Tanner McGrath sees betting value on player props from both teams: Dodgers pitcher Julio Urias and Giants catcher Buster Posey.
- Check out how he's playing both those props in tonight's elimination game.
This is the biggest game of the 2021 season. It’s an elimination, win-or-go-home Game 5 between the only two 105-plus win teams to ever face off in a postseason series.
While this game will be exhilarating regardless, it’s always better to have skin in the game. We’ve identified two player props that are must bets, including a bases total and a strikeout total that the Action Labs Player Props Tool loves.
For context: The Giants have settled in as slight favorites on the moneyline, while the total remains steady at 7.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Editor’s note: Corey Knebel will start for the Dodgers on Thursday night as the opener, but he is expected to be followed by Julio Urías.
Julio Urías Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-118 at FanDuel)
This bet assumes Urías is given a normal leash, but the projections love Urías tonight. Our props tool has Urías projected at 6.3 strikeouts in Game 5, providing us a nice edge on the line FanDuel is offering us on the over at -118.
Moreover, the consensus line for Urías’ over is closer to -125 or -130, so it’s imperative to grab this line being offered now.
Urías has struck out at least five batters in 27 of his 33 starts this season, an 82% hit rate that implies -450 odds to the over. Moreover, he’s hit this number in 14 of his 19 road starts, and his statistics are better across the board when he’s away from home.
He’s also been a menace to the Giants this season. In 29 1/3 innings against San Fran, Urías has posted a 3.38 ERA and a 2.97 xFIP, plus he’s cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in all six starts he’s made against the Giants, including four at Oracle Park.
Urías has blown by most of the batters in this lineup:
- Mike Yastrzemski vs. Urías: 8 Ks in 23 PAs, 4-for-20 lifetime, .248 xwOBA
- Darin Ruf vs. Urías: 7 Ks in 21 PAs, 4-for-19 lifetime, .272 xwOBA
- Evan Longoria vs. Urías: 5 Ks in 19 PAs, 4-for-18 lifetime, .287 xwOBA
- Brandon Crawford vs. Urías: 4 Ks in 17 PAs, 5-for-17 lifetime, .252 xwOBA
- LaMonte Wade Jr. vs Urías: 3 Ks in 4 PAs, 0-for-3 lifetime, .000 xwOBA
In Game 2 of this series, Urías punched out five Giant batters over five one-run innings. I like him to do it again.
Buster Posey Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 at DraftKings)
The only batter that Urías hasn’t dominated is Buster Posey.
Lifetime, Posey is 10-for-20 with four doubles against Urías, and his high average exit velocity has added up to a .525 xSLG.
This is predictable, however, as Posey dominates southpaws. On the season, Posey has posted a 1.051 OPS against that side, going 3-for-106 with 15 extra-base hits.
Plus, Posey loves hitting at Oracle Park. He batted .311 with a .889 OPS at home in the regular season, and he’s already hit a home run here in this series.
THE WORLD HAS MISSED PLAYOFF BUSTER POSEY SO MUCH AND HE IS BACK BABY
— Ben Verlander (@BenVerlander) October 9, 2021
Putting the two together: Posey is batting .364 with a 159 wRC+ at home vs. LHPs in 2021.
We also know that Posey has a flair for the dramatic. If he doesn’t cash this prop against Urías, he might make some late-inning noise in this massive elimination game.
I love this prop at big plus-money but would advise caution betting it lower than +125.
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