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Sunday MLB Prop Bets & Favorite Picks: Target Strikeout Totals For Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Garcia In ALDS Matchups (Oct. 10)

Sunday MLB Prop Bets & Favorite Picks: Target Strikeout Totals For Nathan Eovaldi, Luis Garcia In ALDS Matchups (Oct. 10) article feature image

Cooper Neill/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Brantley

  • Nathan Eovaldi's and Luis Garcia's strikeout totals are both in play in today's ALDS matchups.
  • Michael Brantley has also seen a lot of success against Dylan Cease and his props are worth targeting.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of today's MLB props market, plus a trio of picks.

After going 2-0 in Saturday’s edition of this column, the Action Network MLB Player Props team has now hit six straight prop bet picks.

So, we’re back today with three more plays for tonight’s ALDS matchups. Our Action Labs Player Props tool has found value on starting pitchers for the Red Sox and Astros. Plus, I’ve identified a position player prop that provides value while adding an extra sweat to the card.

The tool grades each play on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade underneath my explanation.

MLB Player Props & Picks

Nathan Eovaldi Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)

Red Sox vs. Rays Red Sox (-120)
Time 4:07 p.m. ET
Best Line BetMGM

Nathan Eovaldi is prone to blowup innings, and he has some questionable statistics as a result (3.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP).

However, Eovaldi is one of the best pitchers in the league when he’s right. There’s a reason he led the American League in fWAR (5.6).

Eovaldi has posted one of the lowest FIPs in the league (2.79), and a big reason for that is his strikeout rate. Eovaldi’s combines a mighty, high 90s fastball combined with a deadly efficient curveball (.118 wOBA allowed on the pitch this season) that has dazzled hitters all season.

While Eovaldi’s only posted a 9.63 K/9 this season, he’s continually boosted that number as the season has progressed.

After posting just an 8.62 K/9 in 103 1/3 first-half innings, Eovaldi posted a 10.94 K/9 in 79 second-half innings. As such, Eovaldi has cashed over 5.5 strikeouts in a whopping 16 of his last 18 starts (88%).

Moreover, Eovaldi’s struck out six or more in all four of his starts against the Rays this season:

  • 4/7 vs. TB: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 7 K
  • 7/31 @ TB: 5.1 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 K
  • 8/11 vs. TB: 7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 10 K
  • 9/8 vs. TB: 7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K

Today, our Action Labs Player Props tool have Eovaldi projected for six strikeouts flat today, giving us a solid edge on the number being offered by BetMGM.

Action Labs Grade: 7/10

Luis Garcia Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-155)

Astros vs. White Sox Astros (+105)
Time 8:07 p.m. ET
Best Line BetMGM

The Astros have a chance to end this series early tonight. They’ll do it with Luis Garcia on the mound, who has one of the best wind-ups in baseball.

Get your dancing shoes on, Astros play tonight at 7:07 PM behind Luis Garcia.

— Michael Schwab (@michaelschwab13) October 10, 2021

Chicago boasts a very disciplined lineup, but this line is stupid low. Garcia has hit this number in 24 of his 30 starts this season. That’s an 80% hit rate that implies -400 odds to the over, more than justifying paying the -155 juice.

Moreover, in his one start against the White Sox this season, Garcia struck out eight batters over seven innings. If he makes it four innings tonight, there’s a good chance he hits this number.

Our Action Labs Player Props tool has him projected for a whopping 6.6 strikeouts tonight, giving us a 27.5% edge over the consensus line being offered.

Action Labs Grade: 10/10

Michael Brantley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+115)

Astros vs. White Sox Astros (+105)
Time 8:07 p.m. ET
Best Line BetMGM

I’m going back to the well with Brantley, as he’s hit his bases total in both games this series and in seven of nine games against the White Sox in 2021.

Today, Brantley will face Dylan Cease, which isn’t good for Cease. Brantley is 3-for-7 lifetime against Cease, with all three hits being for extra bases (one double, two home runs). As such, Brantley’s posted a .885 xSLG in those ABs.

Cease is a four-seam heavy pitcher, throwing the pitch almost half the time. While Brantley’s been successful against that pitch all season, he’s been smashing the four-seam over the past month.

Look for Brantley to square up a fastball tonight, cashing this prop while building on his already excellent October.

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