MLB Sharp Report: Giants-Padres Attracting Pro Action Monday Night

Credit:

Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jeff Samardzija

  • Wiseguys are betting one game on Monday: Giants-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting it.

Editor’s note: This article was published before news broke that Tyler Skaggs tragically passed away on Monday. The Angels-Rangers game has been postponed.

The 2019 calendar has flipped to July, which means the MLB regular season is officially halfway over. The biggest takeaway from the first 81 games of the season? Overs, overs, overs.

According to our Bet Labs database, overs went 15,921-16,543 (including 1,619 pushes) from 2005 to 2018. This amounted to a 49.2% win percentage but a loss of -1,106.16 units because bettors had to pay the juice.

However, this season overs have gone 614-559-59 (51.5%), winning +11.28 units. In other words, overs are cashing at a 2.3% increase compared to their historical average. Juiced ball, anyone?

After analyzing Monday’s incredibly short 6-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a pair of MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


San Francisco Giants (36-47) at San Diego Padres (42-41) 

10:10 p.m. ET | Jeff Samardzija (4-7, 4.52 ERA) vs. Logan Allen (2-0, 1.38 ERA) 

2019 has been the year of the over. Average Joes see high-scoring games on a nightly basis and say to themselves “overs all day the rest of the way.” But wiseguys aren’t blindly riding a trend, especially if it’s way outside of the historical norm.

It’s harder and harder to ignore the juiced-ball conspiracy, but bettors must also realize that the books are getting killed by all of these overs. The public pounds them and they keep winning. And the books are not in the business of losing all season long.

As a result, they have begun to shade totals a half or even a full run higher than normal, forcing public bettors to back inflated numbers while also providing fearless sharps added value to buy low on unders.

This NL West showdown is a perfect example.

The total opened at the low number of 8. Casual bettors see an easy high-scoring game (how can both teams not score 9 runs combined??) and currently 80% of bets are going over. However, despite this lopsided betting, the total has remained frozen at 8. The fact that the total hasn’t risen to 8.5 is key. This means the books are refusing to hand out the crucial half-run hook to wiseguys sweating the under.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked three separate reverse line moves on the under. We haven’t seen a single conflicting over move, which means the over betting is purely public.

The under is only receiving 21% of bets but 44% of dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing a low-scoring game.

Sharp angle: Under (stayed at 8)


Note: Angels pitcher Tyler Skaggs tragically passed away on Monday and the Angels-Rangers game has been postponed.

Los Angeles Angels (42-43) at Texas Rangers (46-38)

8:05 p.m. ET | Jose Suarez (2-1, 5.57 ERA) vs. Mike Minor (8-4, 2.40 ERA)

This AL West matchup looks like a layup on paper. The Rangers are at home, have a better record and enjoy a massive starting pitcher advantage with their lefty ace (and recently named All-Star) facing a 21-year-old with a bloated ERA making his fifth career start.

So of course you know the wiseguys are buying low on the Angels in a classic road-divisional-dog, high-total value spot.

Texas opened as a -144 home favorite and Los Angeles a +133 underdog. Currently 81% of bets are backing the Rangers, making them the No. 1 public play of the day, but we’ve seen this line either stay the same or fall a few cents toward the Angels (+133 to +130).

Nine times out of 10, a team opening at -144 receiving 81% of bets would move to -150, -160 or even -170. The fact that the line didn’t spike in Texas’ favor speaks volumes.

Essentially, we’re looking at sharp line freeze/reverse line move on Los Angeles. Despite the heavy Rangers betting, books refuse to adjust the line further toward Texas. Why? Because sharps have gotten down on the Angels and created liability for the house, which has overridden the lopsided Rangers betting.

The Halos are receiving only 19% of bets but 44% of dollars, a big smart money discrepancy in their favor. Wiseguys got down hard on LAA at +137, triggering the lone bet signal we’ve tracked on the game.

Sharp angle: Angels (stayed at +130)

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