MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Dodgers-Phillies, 2 Other Wednesday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Dodgers-Phillies, 2 Other Wednesday Games article feature image

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bryce Harper

  • Wiseguys are getting down on 3 MLB games tonight, headlined by Dodgers-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Tigers-Indians (7:10 p.m. ET) and Diamondbacks-Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

So you want to bet on sports? Be prepared for epic bad beats that will drive you insane. Last night wiseguys cashed their juicy Diamondbacks (+145) play and were lined up for another win in the Bronx. Sharps had the under 10 and the Rays led 3-2 entering the bottom of the 8th. Then the Yankees scored SIX RUNS to win 8-3 and send the game over. Talk about brutal.

Overall it was a big night for contrarian bettors as underdogs went 9-6 (+6.56 units won).

#MLB Tuesday Recap

➡️Dogs: 9-6, +6.56u
➡️Home teams: 9-6, +2.19u
➡️<35% bets: 6-2, +6.68u
➡️NL East teams: 4-1, +3.92u
➡️Overs: 8-7, +0.97u

— Sports Insights (@SportsInsights) July 17, 2019

After analyzing Wednesday’s stacked 15-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a trio of MLB games.

>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Los Angeles Dodgers (63-34) at Philadelphia Phillies (49-46)

7:05 p.m. ET | Kenta Maeda (7-6, 3.82 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (4-4, 5.80 ERA) 

Philadelphia earned one of its biggest wins of the season last night, scoring three runs in the bottom of the 9th to come back and upset Los Angeles 9-8 in thrilling fashion. It was a huge win for contrarian bettors and sportsbooks, as nearly 80% of bets were on the Dodgers -199 (Philly closed +182).

The public says Los Angeles is a powerhouse and can’t possibly lose two games in a row. But wiseguys aren’t falling victim to the Gambler’s Fallacy. They’re buying low on Philadelphia to ride last night’s momentum to Green Dot City tonight.

The Dodgers opened as relatively heavy -150 road favorites and the Phillies +138 home dogs. Currently 86% of bets are laying the moneyline price with LA, making the Dodgers the most lopsided public play of the day. However, despite this ridiculous public support, the line has barely budged (-150 to -153).

Typically teams getting nearly 90% of bets would see a massive line swing in their favor, moving from -150 to -170 or more. The fact that books refuse to budge more than a few cents shows that they’re worried about handing out extra plus-money to contrarian wiseguys on Philadelphia.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Phillies at +140, +139, +138 and +137. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move on the Dodgers, which means their support is purely public.

Not only is Philly the top contrarian play of the day (receiving only 14% of bets), but they also match a profitable Bet Labs system: Sub 20% dog off win.

Since 2005, dogs receiving less than 20% of bets that won their last game have produced 94.16 units won since 2005.

Sharp angle: Phillies (moved from +138 to +141)

Detroit Tigers (29-61) at Cleveland Indians (53-40)

7:10 p.m. ET | Spencer Turnbull (3-8, 3.59 ERA) vs. Mike Clevinger (2-2, 3.99 ERA)

Cleveland’s offense has been on a tear as of late. The Tribe scored eight runs last night and have now mashed 20 homers in their last 11 games. Recreational bettors are taking note. They see an easy over tonight with the Indians facing a rookie who just came off the injured list and lasted only three innings and gave up five runs (four earned) his last start out.

But once again sharps are zigging while the public zags.

This over/under opened at 9.5. Currently 70% of bets are taking the over, yet we’ve seen the total fall down to 9.

This movement begs the question: Why would the sportsbooks drop the line to give public bettors an easier shot at cashing their over? No, they’re not being nice. They adjusted the total downward to compensate for big smart money from pro bettors hammering the under.

As soon as the line opened, wiseguys steamed the under 9.5. Then, even after the total fell to 9, Goodfellas crushed the under 9 twice more, triggering a pair of reverse line moves. The fact that sharps hit the under again even though they lost the hook and the line got worse speaks volumes. This means they still feel comfortable taking a worse number because they’re confident in a low-scoring game.

The weather also provides a big edge to the under as the wind is blowing in from straightaway center at 7 mph. When the wind blows in at 5 mph or more the under has won at 55% clip since 2005, producing 95.32 units won.

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)

Arizona Diamondbacks (48-47) at Texas Rangers (50-45) 

8:05 p.m. ET | Robbie Ray (7-6, 3.81 ERA) vs. Jesse Chavez (3-4, 3.84 ERA) 

The Diamondbacks came up huge for the wiseguys last night, beating the Rangers 9-2 as +147 underdogs. Tonight the public doesn’t know which team to take, but wiseguys have made up their minds. They’re back on the Snakes train.

This interleague showdown opened with Arizona listed as a short -110 road favorite and Texas a +102 home dog. Currently 52% of bets are siding with the Snakes, yet we’ve seen this line move bigly toward Arizona (-110 to -123).

In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all (maybe a cent or two) if the bets are split down the middle. So what caused this 13-cent jump?

Sharp action, of course.

Arizona is getting only 52% of bets but 65% of dollars, signaling smart money support from respected pro bettors.

The D-backs also fit a pair of profitable Bet Labs systems

  1. Non-Division road favorites: 164-106 (60.7%), +14.99 units, 5.6% ROI this season
  2. Moderate Betting, Big Move: 369-262 (58.5), +41.84 units, 6.6% ROI since 2005

Two added bonuses for sharps sweating Arizona: the Rangers struggle against left-handed starting pitchers (14-18 vs lefties compared to 36-27 vs. righties) and Ed Hickox is behind the plate (home teams have lost -14.91 units since 2005 when Hickox calls balls and strikes).

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from -110 to -123)

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