Friday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Pirates, Three Other Games
Josh Harrison and Brandon Nimmo. Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
- Pros went 3-0 (+3.35 units) on Thursday night.
- Sharp Report plays are now 13-8 (+6.85 units) since the All-Star break.
- Wiseguys are eyeing three dogs and a rare contrarian over tonight.
Wiseguys cashed bigly last night, going a perfect 3-0 with their Thursday plays (Mets +136, Twins-Red Sox Under 10 and Brewers -101). Now it’s Friday, which has historically been the best day of the week to fade the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week (and getting their latest paychecks), average Joes are more likely to get down on games, specifically targeting favorites, home teams and overs. This leads to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:35 p.m., 8:10 p.m. and 10:15 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Sharp angles: Mets +132
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
The Mets came up huge for the sharps last night, beating the Pirates, 12-6. New York closed with only 38% of bets but had sharp reverse line movement +149 to +130. Public bettors say the Mets are awful and must come back down to earth and lose tonight. But wiseguys aren’t falling for the Gambler’s Fallacy.
New York is in the same exact spot as last night: they’re only getting 27% bets but 39% dollars and have fallen from +155 to +132. Even better, the Mets are road dogs with a high total and they’ve received a pair of profitable bet signals. Sharps at Carib hit NYM +150 and then pros at SIA hit NYM +140.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves
- Sharp angle: Over 8
- First pitch 7:35 p.m. ET
The Wake and Rake Kingpin P.J. Walsh hit on this total earlier today. Public bettors see two stud pitchers toeing the rubber (Clayton Kershaw 2.64 ERA and Mike Foltynewicz 2.85 ERA), and automatically say “low-scoring game, Under!” This creates a rare contrarian over opportunity for the wiseguys.
Currently 58% of bets are on the Under, but a whopping 76% of dollars are on the Over, a clear sign of Over smart money. The total opened at 8 Over -115 and is now being juiced up even further to 8 Over -121, which indicates the next move is likely up to 8.5. Pro players hammered the Over 8 four separate times at four separate books (Buckeye, GTBets, Greek and Heritage), a great sign of sharp market consensus on the Over. Two added bonuses for sharp Over backers: the wind is blowing out to center and Quinn Wolcott is behind the plate (Unders are -13.59 units since 2005 when Wolcott calls balls and strikes).
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Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox
- Sharp angles: White Sox +118
- First pitch 8:10 p.m. ET
The Jays are 46-55 and the White Sox are 36-66. As always, public players are going with the favorite with the better record. However, sharps see a sneaky value play on the home dog. Chicago is getting only 37% of bets but 50% of dollars and has fallen from +128 to +118 since opening. This combination of bets vs. dollar discrepancy and reverse line movement is a clear indicator that Goodfellas are buying low on the ChiSox. Pros at SIA, Pinnacle and BetOnline all hit the South Siders between +135 and +131, causing the big movement in their favor.
Milwaukee Brewers at San Francisco Giants
- Sharp angle: Brewers +113
- First pitch 10:15 p.m. ET
Wiseguys cashed with the Brew Crew last night and they’re going back to the well tonight. With Madison Bumgarner on the mound, nearly 60% of bets are taking the Giants at home. However, San Francisco has fallen from -148 to -122 since opening. Why would the books drop the line to give public SF backers a better number? Because sharps at BetOnline and Carib got down hard on the Brewers +125, causing big reverse line movement in their favor (+136 down to +113).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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