Friday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Braves, Four Other Games
Max Scherzer. Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Kevin Gausman. Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports.
- Wiseguys are betting five MLB games on Friday, headlined by Washington Nationals-Atlanta Braves (7:35 p.m. ET), with Washington listed as a -155 favorite and an over/under of 8.
- Sharps are also betting Chicago White Sox-Baltimore Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET), Oakland Athletics-Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 p.m. ET), Texas Rangers-San Diego Padres (10:10 p.m. ET) and Colorado Rockies-San Francisco Giants (10:15 p.m. ET).
Wiseguys spent another night in Green Dot City on Thursday, cashing their Blue Jays-Red Sox Under and Dodgers-Cardinals contrarian Over en route to a 2-1 night. Sharps will look to stretch their winning streak to three consecutive days on Friday.
Historically, today is the best day of the week to bet against the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week, Average Joes are more likely to get down on games, leading to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value for the pros.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m., 7:35 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. and 10:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
- Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 9.5)
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Public bettors take one look at the two starting pitchers (James Shields 4.58 ERA and Luis Ortiz 40.50 ERA) and say easy Over. But wiseguys are buying low on a contrarian Under.
Heavy public betting (80%) on the Over pushed the total up from 9 to 9.5. That’s when sharps pounced, hammering the inflated Under 9.5 at both Pinnacle and BetUS.
The Under also enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy: only 20% of bets are on the Under but it accounts for 80% of dollars.
An added bonus for Goodfella Under backers: the wind is blowing in heavily from right-center at 10 mph.
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Oakland Athletics at Tampa Bay Rays
- Sharp angle: Rays (+113 to -120)
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Two of the most profitable teams this season go head to head at the Trop tonight (Oakland 89-58, +28.38 units and Tampa Bay 80-65, +22.01 units). The public is taking Oakland, but sharps have boarded the Rays train.
Tampa is getting only 43% of bets but 69% of dollars and has moved from +113 to -120. This massive bets vs. dollars discrepancy and reverse line movement was caused by sharps at JustBet and Pinnacle hammering TB +105 and -108, pushing the Rays from a dog to a favorite.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
- Sharp angle: Over (moved from 7.5 to 8)
- First pitch: 7:35 p.m. ET
We’re looking at a carbon copy of last night’s Dodgers-Cardinals contrarian Over. With Max Scherzer (2.31 ERA) facing Kevin Gausman (2.32 ERA), the public sees a lock of the century Under play.
However, despite 67% of bets going Under, the total has risen from 7.5 to 8. Why would the oddsmakers raise the total to hand out a better number for public Under backers?
Because sharps have come in hard on the Over 7.5 at BetOnline and YouWager, triggering a pair of steam and reverse line moves. The wind is also blowing out to straightaway center at 9 mph.
Texas Rangers at San Diego Padres
- Sharp angle: Padres (moved from-120 to -139)
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The public sees two of the worst teams in baseball facing off and says, “give me the team getting plus-money.” However, despite 57% of bets taking Texas, the line has moved bigly toward San Diego (-120 to -139).
This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Fathers. San Diego has won three in a row, making the Padres a match for the profitable Bet Labs Bad Team After Win system (+166.85 units since 2005).
The Padres are getting only 43% of bets but 90% of dollars, another sign that sharps are fading the trendy dog tonight.
Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants
- Sharp angle: Under (7.5)
- First pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
We’re seeing classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this NL West total.
With two high-ERA pitchers going head-to-head (Tyler Anderson 4.89 and Chris Stratton 4.99), more than 80% of bets are taking the Over– making it the most lopsided total play of the night.
However, the total has remained frozen at 7.5, and the juice has moved from 7.5 Under +106 to 7.5 Under -116. This indicates liability on the Under despite the heavy Over betting (it may even fall to 7).
Pros at Pinnacle and The Greek hammered Under 7.5, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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