Max Scherzer. Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports. Kevin Gausman. Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports.
- Wiseguys are betting five MLB games on Friday, headlined by Washington Nationals-Atlanta Braves (7:35 p.m. ET), with Washington listed as a -155 favorite and an over/under of 8.
- Sharps are also betting Chicago White Sox-Baltimore Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET), Oakland Athletics-Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 p.m. ET), Texas Rangers-San Diego Padres (10:10 p.m. ET) and Colorado Rockies-San Francisco Giants (10:15 p.m. ET).
Wiseguys spent another night in Green Dot City on Thursday, cashing their Blue Jays-Red Sox Under and Dodgers-Cardinals contrarian Over en route to a 2-1 night. Sharps will look to stretch their winning streak to three consecutive days on Friday.
Historically, today is the best day of the week to bet against the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week, Average Joes are more likely to get down on games, leading to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value for the pros.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m., 7:35 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. and 10:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles
- Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 9.5)
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Public bettors take one look at the two starting pitchers (James Shields 4.58 ERA and Luis Ortiz 40.50 ERA) and say easy Over. But wiseguys are buying low on a contrarian Under.
Heavy public betting (80%) on the Over pushed the total up from 9 to 9.5. That’s when sharps pounced, hammering the inflated Under 9.5 at both Pinnacle and BetUS.
The Under also enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy: only 20% of bets are on the Under but it accounts for 80% of dollars.
An added bonus for Goodfella Under backers: the wind is blowing in heavily from right-center at 10 mph.
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