Tuesday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Blue Jays-Braves, Three Other Games
Marcus Stroman. Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
Wiseguys started their week off in style yesterday, cashing both of their Monday plays en route to a 2-0 day. The Marlins (+123) and Giants (-121) were classic examples of what sharp bettors look for: a low percentage of bets, a higher percentage of dollars, reverse line movement, multiple bet signals and profitable Bet Labs system matches.
No matter the sport, the wiseguy blueprint doesn't change. Bet against the public, align yourself with the house and other professionals and make sure you're on the right side of a historically profitable trend. Stay the course, think long term.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m. and 7:35 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It's a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager.
Data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-101)
7:05 p.m. ET
The Pirates beat the Nats 6-3 in the series opener last night. The public says Washington is a much better team than Pittsburgh and the Nats have to bounce back and win tonight. However, despite receiving 65% of bets, the Nats are getting only 53% of dollars, indicating mostly Average Joe money in their favor.
Meanwhile, even though nearly two-thirds of bets are on Bryce Harper and Co., the Nats have fallen from -110 to -107. Why would the books hand out a better number to public Nats backers when they're already on Washington to begin with?
Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians Under 8.5
7:10 p.m. ET
The public can’t decide whether they should take the Over or the Under in this Interleague Ohio Civil War, but not the wiseguys. They've taken a clear side. Total bets are split 50/50, but we've seen the line drop from 9 to 8.5. In a vacuum, a total shouldn’t budge if the betting percentages are even (aside from maybe the juice being adjusted a cent or two).
The line is down to 8.5, but the juice is on the Over (-119), meaning late Under backers who missed the 9 might get a second chance at it. Two added bonuses for Under backers: the wind is blowing in heavily from center, and James Hoye is behind the plate, a top Under ump (+15.53 units) since 2005.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (+101)
7:10 p.m. ET
The Phillies and Mets split their doubleheader yesterday, with New York winning the first game in extras 4-3 and Philly taking the nightcap 3-1. Today, both starting pitchers will be making their major-league debuts. Naturally, the public loves the Phils because they're 50-39 and the Mets are 36-52. However, sharps are buying low on New York. In one of the most lopsided games of the day, 76% of bets are taking Philadelphia, yet the Philly line has absolutely tanked from -137 to -109.
This massive reverse line movement indicates heavy smart money on New York.
7:35 p.m. ET
The Braves have been a public darling all year long. They're 50-39 and have made bettors +13.69 units this season. Today, they're at home against Marcus Stroman (6.67 ERA) and the 41-48 Jays. Average Joes see an easy Braves win, but not the sharps. Toronto is getting only 27% of bets but it has moved from +120 down to +117.
If the public is all over Atlanta, why would the Jays' payout get smaller? This sharp reverse line movement/line freeze indicates smart money on Toronto. Toronto is a road dog with a high total and an AL team in Interleague play, two profitable spots since 2005. They also match the Moneyline Ground-Ball Pitcher Bet Labs system (+118.76 units since 2005).
Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out The Action Network MLB betting trends page.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.
For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights.
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