Sharps Betting 3 MLB Underdogs on Monday’s Afternoon Slate
Gregory J. Fisher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mikie Mahtook, Jacoby Jones, and Victor Reyes
- Labor Day brings with it a handful of afternoon MLB games, and sharp bettors have been drawn to three in particular.
- As is often the case when betting on a side, these sharp bets all come on the underdog.
After a profitable first true weekend of college football, sharps have shifted their focus back to baseball.
Labor Day’s afternoon slate of MLB games has already seen its fair share of sharp action, with three underdogs attracting the most smart money. Let’s take a look.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates
1:35 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: CIN +122
This game has been one of the biggest movers on the board, with the Pirates falling from -160 to -135 — an implied probability drop of 61.5% to 57.5%. With only 28% of bets on the Reds, it’s clear that the line move was a result of sharp action.
Sure enough, we’ve tracked two steam moves on Cincinnati since this game opened.
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
2:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: MIL +111
Seventy-three percent of bettors are behind Cole Hamels and the Cubs in this NL Central matchup. Still, the Cubbies have fallen from -140 to -122 at BookMaker.
Why? Because wiseguys have hit the Brewers hard, causing market-wide line movement on four separate occasions. Those steam moves have brought Chicago’s implied win probability from 58.3% to 54.9%.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
2:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: DET +114
Unlike the first two games on the sharp card, this line has remained stagnant since opening.
With only a third of bettors taking Detroit, this line, in theory, should have risen. But because sharps are among the bettors on the Tigers, it’s stayed put.
Three steam moves have been triggered on Detroit, which has counteracted the public action behind Chicago. The Tigers also have a higher dollar than bet percentage, indicating that bigger — likely sharper — bets are behind them.