Thursday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Dodgers-Cardinals, Two Other Games
Clayton Kershaw. Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports. Austin Gomber. Credit: Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Thursday, headlined by Los Angeles Dodgers-St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 p.m. ET), with Los Angeles listed as a -186 favorite with an over/under of 7.5
- Sharps are also betting Toronto Blue Jays-Boston Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET) and Minnesota Twins-Kansas City Royals (8:15 p.m. ET)
Wiseguys had a successful Wednesday night, going 2-1 with their three plays. Thanks to the plus-money payouts on the Padres (+135) and Nationals (+120), sharps were able to profit +1.55 units overall.
While the public focuses on Thursday Night Football and three college football games, pro baseball bettors will stay selective and look to capitalize on an overlooked MLB board.
After analyzing Thursday’s nine-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 7:15 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox
- Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The Sox edged the Jays, 1-0, last night, with the Under cashing without a sweat. The stacked Boston lineup faces Sam Gaviglio (5.25 ERA) tonight, and public bettors see a high-scoring game.
But sharps are buying low on a contrarian Under. Currently, 62% of bets are taking the Over, yet the total has fallen from 9.5 to 9, indicating sharp reverse line movement on the Under.
Goodfellas at Heritage steamed the Under 9.5 early. Then pros at JustBet hit the Under 9. The second move is notable because even though the total dropped and sharps couldn’t get the hook, they still hit it. This indicates supreme confidence in the Under.
An added bonus: the wind is blowing in from right-center.
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Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals
- Sharp angle: Over (7.5)
- First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
Anytime Clayton Kershaw (2.42 ERA) takes the mound, it’s an automatic Under for the public. With Kershaw facing a fellow sub-3.00 ERA pitcher in Austin Gomber (2.93), Average Joes are even more confident in a low-scoring game.
But sharps are eyeing a rare contrarian Over. Despite 70% of bets going Under, the total has remained frozen at 7.5. In fact, the juice has trended Over, moving from 7.5 Over -100 to 7.5 Over -110.
Sharps at Pinnacle, GTBets and CRIS all got down hard on the Over 7.5, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves. At Bookmaker, the Over 7.5 is juiced up to -115, indicating it may even rise to 8.
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
- Sharp angle: Twins (moved from -105 to -106)
- First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
The Twins are riding high. They just took two out of three from the Yankees at home. Tonight, they travel to divisional rival Kansas City.
Public bettors take one look at the Twins starting pitcher (Stephen Gonsalves 11.68 ERA) and that’s all they need to know. Royals all day.
However, despite nearly 65% of bets taking Kansas City, the line has remained frozen or moved slightly toward Minnesota (-105 to -106). This indicates liability on the Twins.
Sharps hit Twinkies -105 at both Pinnacle and The Greek. The Twins also enjoy a profitable smart money discrepancy: they’re getting only 38% bets but 56% of dollars, another sign of wiseguys buying low on the road team..
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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