Wednesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Rockies-Cardinals and Cubs-Pirates
Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Colorado Rockies relief pitcher Wade Davis (71) and catcher Tom Murphy (23)
- Following a difficult Tuesday, wiseguys are looking to bounce back with two bets for Wednesday's night slate of games.
- Sharps are eyeing a contrarian over/under opportunity in Pittsburgh and fading a trendy underdog in St. Louis.
Tuesday night was rough for the wiseguys and the books. Public players cleaned up, as teams getting 60% or more of bets went 10-3 (76.9%), winning +4.37 units for a 33.6% return on investment (ROI). Baseball betting is the ultimate roller coaster. The long season brings big volatile swings. The key is staying the course and sticking to the blueprint.
After analyzing Wednesday’s small 12-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed two MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Sharp angle: Under 8
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
Last night the Cubs and Pirates combined for nine runs, sending Over 7.5 bettors to Green Dot City. With Cole Hamels (4.72 ERA) making his debut for Chicago against Nick Kingham (4.80 ERA), the public sees another easy Over. Not the wiseguys. Despite 80% of bets taking the Over, the total has remained frozen at 8. Typically, if a total is getting overwhelming public betting it will rise from 8 to 8.5. The fact that this total hasn’t moved indicates liability on the Under, with the books reluctant to raise the total and hand out a free half run to sharp contrarian Under bettors.
Pro players at CRIS and BetOnline got down hard on the Under 8, triggering a pair of reverse line moves. The Under also fits the highly profitable Bet Labs system Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+186.40 units since 2005).
>> Follow Josh Appelbaum in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets.
Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals
- Sharp angle: Cardinals -135
- First pitch 8:15 p.m. ET
The Rockies beat the Cardinals, 6-3, last night. Today, Colorado sends ace Kyle Freeland (9-6, 3.13 ERA) to the mound against Luke Weaver (6-9, 4.70). The public likes the pitching matchup for Colorado, and the fact that the Rockies are getting plus money. But wiseguys are fading the trendy dog.
The Cardinals are getting only 33% of bets, yet they’ve moved from -123 to -133. Why would the Cardinals’ price get more expensive if two-thirds of bets are taking Colorado? Because pro players got down hard on St. Louis -130 at SIA and Carib, triggering a pair of profitable reverse line moves. The Cardinals also enjoy a massive smart money discrepancy: they’ve getting only 33% of bets but 65% of dollars.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.