Friday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Yankees-Red Sox, Astros-Dodgers and Braves-Mets
Gleyber Torres and J.D. Martinez. Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
- Pro bettors split their two Thursday plays.
- Historically, Fridays are the best night to Bet Against the Public.
- Sharps are hitting two moneylines and one over/under Friday night.
Wiseguys split their two Thursday plays, losing the Yankees (+101) moneyline bet, but winning the Braves-Mets under (8.5). Now it’s Friday, which has historically been the best day of the week to fade the public.
With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week (and getting their latest paychecks), average Joes are more likely to get down on games, specifically targeting favorites, home teams and overs. This leads to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets
- Sharp angle: Mets -143
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Yes, Jacob DeGrom has the best ERA in MLB (1.82), but public bettors still can’t stomach betting on the Mets, especially since they’re laying a favorite price. That’s okay with the sharps, they’ll gladly fade the trendy dog. Currently 56% of bets are taking Atlanta, but 71% of dollars are on the Mets.
This means average Joes are on the Braves, but sharps like the New York. Despite getting only 44% of bets, they Mets have moved from -129 to -143, indicating sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Wiseguys at Pinnacle steamed Mets -136 and we haven’t seen any bet signals on Atlanta.
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Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees
- Sharp angle: Under 9
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Public bettors are victims of recency bias. The Sox and Yankees combined for 22 runs last night, so despite the marquee pitching matchup between Luis Severino (2.94 ERA) and RIck Porcello (4.03 ERA), more than 70% of bets are taking the over tonight. This heavy public action pushed the total from 8.5 to 9. That’s when sharps pounced on the under, hammering under 9 at GTBets, 5Dimes and Pinnacle.
The fact that the sharps only got down on under 9 (and not under 8.5), tells you they only like the under if you can get 9. The under 9 is juiced up to -120, indicating it may fall to 8.5.
The under is getting 29% bets, but 52% dollars, another sign of smart money taking a low scoring game. This under also fits the profitable Bet Labs system Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+184.31 units since 2005).
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
- Sharp angle: Dodgers +102
- First pitch 10:10 p.m. ET
In this World Series rematch, public bettors are loading up on Justin Verlander (2.24 ERA) and the Astros as a short road favorite. But wiseguys are buying low on LA at home. This game opened at a virtual pick’em, with both sides -104 at Pinnacle. Nearly 65% of bets are taking Houston, but it only accounts for 46% of dollars.
This indicates heavy average Joe money on the defending champions. Meanwhile, despite the heavy Houston betting, the line has remained frozen at -104. This indicates sharp liability on the Dodgers, with books reluctant to move LA to plus money and give out a better number to wiseguy Hollywood backers. Sharps at BetUs, JustBet, 5Dimes and the Greek all hammered the Dodgers, triggering four separate steam and reverse line moves.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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