MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Blue Jays-Orioles, Brewers-Astros Wednesday Night
Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Ben Gamel (16) is out at home plate as Houston Astros catcher Robinson Chirinos (28) applies a tag. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys look to bounce back on Wednesday after striking out with their Tuesday plays.
- Sharps are betting a pair of games tonight: Blue Jays-Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Astros (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting both games.
Wiseguys got taken to the woodshed last night, going 0-3 with their Tuesday plays. There’s no way to sugarcoat it, but sharps are in a slump. Dogs just won’t bark. Wiseguys know regression is coming. But the wait is brutal.
Favorites are now hitting at a 60% rate (+20.47 units) this season, which is way outside of the historical norm. From 2005 to 2018 they hit at a 57.4% clip, losing -662.79 units. Stay the course. The night is always darkest before the dawn.
>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Toronto Blue Jays (23-43) @ Baltimore Orioles (21-45)
Derek Law (0-1, 5.89 ERA) vs. David Hess (1-8, 7.08 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET
These two teams aren’t just AL East cellar dwellers. They also own two of the three worst records in all of baseball. As a result, the public sees two awful teams and says “flip a coin.” But wiseguys have taken a clear position.
This game opened at a virtual pick’em, with the Orioles listed as -105 home favorites. Currently, moneyline bets are split right down the middle, yet we’ve seen this line move toward Baltimore (-105 to -111).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So what caused this movement toward the O’s?
Sharp money, of course.
Baltimore is getting only 50% of bets but 65% of dollars, signaling bigger wagers taking the home team. We’ve also noticed a pair of steam moves on the Orioles, with wiseguys getting down hard on BAL at -105 and -109.
We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Toronto.
Sharp angle: Orioles (moved from -105 to -111)
Milwaukee Brewers (38-29) @ Houston Astros (46-22)
Brandon Woodruff (8-1, 3.87 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (9-2, 2.40 ERA)
8:10 p.m. ET
Public bettors largely bet over/unders based on pitching matchups. If two scrub pitchers with high ERAs are facing off, take the over. If two aces are going head-to-head (like in this game), take the under.
But wiseguys know there is much more that goes into betting totals than just starting pitcher matchups.
This over/under opened at a low 7.5. Currently 61% of bets are taking the under, expecting a low-scoring pitcher’s duel.
However, despite this heavy under betting, we’ve seen the total remain frozen at 7.5. The fact that the oddsmakers didn’t drop the total to 7 signals reluctance by the house to hand out a better number to wiseguys eyeing the contrarian over.
This is also a top Bet Signal play, as we’ve tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Over 7.5.
According to our Bet Labs database, low totals (between 7 and 8) in non-division games have gone over at a 57% clip this season, winning +18.15 units with a 10% return on investment (ROI).
Sharp angle: Over (stayed at 7.5)