MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Blue Jays-Orioles, Brewers-Astros Wednesday Night

Jun 12, 2019 02:37 PM EDT

Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Ben Gamel (16) is out at home plate as Houston Astros catcher Robinson Chirinos (28) applies a tag. Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys look to bounce back on Wednesday after striking out with their Tuesday plays.
  • Sharps are betting a pair of games tonight: Blue Jays-Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET) and Brewers-Astros (8:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting both games.

Wiseguys got taken to the woodshed last night, going 0-3 with their Tuesday plays. There’s no way to sugarcoat it, but sharps are in a slump. Dogs just won’t bark. Wiseguys know regression is coming. But the wait is brutal.

Favorites are now hitting at a 60% rate (+20.47 units) this season, which is way outside of the historical norm. From 2005 to 2018 they hit at a 57.4% clip, losing -662.79 units. Stay the course. The night is always darkest before the dawn.

After analyzing Wednesday’s 12-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a pair of MLB games.

>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Toronto Blue Jays (23-43) @ Baltimore Orioles (21-45) 

Derek Law (0-1, 5.89 ERA) vs. David Hess (1-8, 7.08 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET

These two teams aren’t just AL East cellar dwellers. They also own two of the three worst records in all of baseball. As a result, the public sees two awful teams and says “flip a coin.” But wiseguys have taken a clear position.

This game opened at a virtual pick’em, with the Orioles listed as -105 home favorites. Currently, moneyline bets are split right down the middle, yet we’ve seen this line move toward Baltimore (-105 to -111).

In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So what caused this movement toward the O’s?

model helps you find edges when betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game
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