MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Braves-Diamondbacks, 2 Other Friday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Braves-Diamondbacks, 2 Other Friday Games article feature image
Credit:

Atlanta Braves third baseman Josh Donaldson (20) celebrates with teammates in the dugout after hitting a home run. Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Friday, headlined by Braves-Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Mariners-Red Sox (7:10 p.m. ET) and Phillies-Royals (8:15 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys bounced back yesterday, going a perfect 2-0 with their Thursday plays. Now it’s on to Fade the Public Friday.

Historically, today is the best day to bet against the public because average Joes are finishing their work weeks and more apt to get down on games. This creates an increased contrarian edge for the sharps.

After analyzing Friday’s stacked 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 2:15 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Seattle Mariners @ Boston Red Sox

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 9.5 to 10)

It’s a misconception that sharps and squares (casual bettors who bet for fun) are always on different sides of a game. Although somewhat rare, it does happen from time to time. If sharps see value and the public happens to be on the same side, they won’t lay off or go the other way simply out of spite.

This over/under is a perfect example.

The total opened at 9.5. With two high ERA pitchers going head-to-head (Erik Swanson 4.94 vs Eduardo Rodriguez 5.40), currently 75% of bets are taking the over.

However, the over also accounts for 84% of dollars. This bet vs dollar split signals both recreational $5 wagers and big dime bets ($1000) from pros backing a high scoring game.

As a result of this influx of over money, oddsmakers were forced to adjust the total up from 9.5 to 10. The juice on the Over 10 is also -115 at some books, indicating liability remains on the over despite the total being raised a half run (books are still forcing over bettors to pay a big price).

One reason sharps love this over: the weather.

The wind is blowing straight out at 10-13 MPH at Fenway Park tonight. According to our Bet Labs database, overs have won +109.80 units since 2005 when the wind blow outs at 10 MPH or more.

Philadelphia Phillies @ Kansas City Royals

8:15 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)

This under-the-radar interleague showdown is the top pros vs joes total play of the night.

Anytime Homer Bailey (5.25 ERA) takes the hill, that’s all the public needs to know. Hammer the over. Lock of the century, right?

This total opened at a high 9.5. Currently 76% of bets are taking the over, but 63% of dollars are taking the under– a clear indication that big sharp wagers are buying low on a contrarian under.

This is also the biggest Bet Signal play of the night. We noticed six separate steam and reverse line moves on the Under 9.5. This overload of smart money forced oddsmakers to drop the total down to 9 despite heavy public over betting.

Historically, unders have been more profitable than overs in Interleague Play due to the lack of familiarity (hitters don’t know the pitchers). Unders have won +13.11 units in Interleague Play since 2005 while Overs have lost -190.1 units.

An added bonus for Goodfellas sweating the under: the wind is blowing in front right-center at 5 MPH.

Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks

9:40 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Braves (moved from +130 to +126)

Wiseguys have no allegiances. It’s all about removing bias and betting based strictly on data. Sharps always bet with their heads, never their hearts.

Last night wiseguys cashed bigly on the Snakes. So that means they’re riding Arizona again tonight out of favoritism.

Nope.

This line opened with the Diamondbacks listed as a -150 home favorite. With a big name pitcher on the mound (Zack Greinke), currently 70% of bets are backing the Snakes at home.

However, we’ve actually seen this line fall away from Arizona (-150 to -140) and toward Atlanta (+130 to +126).

Why would the oddsmakers drop the Snakes’ price if the public is already on them?

Because sharps got down hard on Julio Teheran and the Braves. We noticed a big steam move on Atlanta +130 and not a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Arizona.

The Braves are also a road underdog with a high total, a profitable spot historically, and Doug Eddings is behind the plate. Home teams have lost -6.83 units since 2005 with Eddings calling balls and strikes.