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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cardinals-Reds, 2 Other Saturday Games


Michael McLoone-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Matt Carpenter and Paul Goldschmidt

  • Sharp action is hitting Saturday's full baseball slate, as wiseguys have been targeting totals in three games.
  • Sports Insights' Bet Signals and betting market percentages reveal which bets the pros are making in Cardinals-Reds, Pirates-Nationals and Indians-Royals.

A full Saturday MLB slate means baseball will be being played from 1 p.m. to around midnight ET. It also means plenty of opportunities for sharp bettors to find some value, and they’ve done just that on three games in particular.

Starting with Pirates-Nats (4:05 p.m. ET), wiseguys have specifically been eyeing totals on Saturday, and have cause oddsmakers to adjust their numbers on a few occasions.

>> All odds as of 10 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Washington Nationals

4:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 8.5 to 9)

With a recognizable name like Chris Archer on the mound, this over/under has bettors a bit more split than usual. Still, a slight majority (54%) are backing the over, and according to the tools at Sports Insights and The Action Network, those bettors seem to be of the sharper variety.

For starters, they’ve generated 92% of actual money being wagered on the matchup, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are in that group.

More significantly, they’ve caused three Sports Insights Bet Signals — instances of professionally-driven market-wide line moves — on the under. All three signals came at the opening total of 8.5, and after shifting the juice as high as -127, oddsmakers eventually were forced to move the actual run total.

St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds

7:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 9.5 to 10.5)

A full-run line move in baseball is rare and will almost never be caused simply by a heavy public backing. So even though 61% of bets are behind this over, you can be pretty certain that the move from 9.5 to 10.5 has sharp action written all over it.

Once again the 61% backing has accounted for a significantly higher percentage of money. As of writing, a whopping 97% of dollars have been wagered on the over. That figure will probably fall as first pitch approaches, but regardless, the discrepancy between bets and dollars tells us what we need to know about how bigger, sharper players are seeing this total.

Another three SI Bet Signals have hit the over, this time coming at two totals (9.5 and 10), hence the full-run line shift.

Cleveland Indians @ Kansas City Royals

7:15 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9 to 8.5)

A more typical fade-the-public type sharp play here, as only 37% of bettors have backed the under in this matchup. Like the others, though, that 37% backing has made up for an impressive 78% of actual money on the total.

The under has also triggered two SI Bet Signals of its own (both at 9), causing the market-wide reaction. It’s worth noting that some books are still holding onto a total of 9, though they’ve all juiced the under up to around -120.

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