MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Twins-Mariners, 2 Other Friday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Twins-Mariners, 2 Other Friday Games article feature image
Credit:

Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Minnesota Twins right fielder Max Kepler (26) rounds third base ad scores against the Detroit Tigers in the third inning at Target Field.

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB games tonight, headlined by Cubs-Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Brewers-Braves (7:20 p.m. ET) and Twins-Mariners (10:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys split their four plays yesterday, cashing the Reds and Orioles/Indians over, but losing the Cubs/Reds over and the Mariners. Now it’s on to Fade the Public Friday.

Historically, today is the best day of the week for sharps. Average Joes are finishing their work weeks and more apt to get down on games. As a result, the market is flooded with casual money, creating an increased edge for contrarian wiseguys.

After analyzing Friday’s stacked 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Chicago Cubs @ Washington Nationals

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Nationals (moved from -124 to -155)

It’s not often that wiseguys get a chance to simultaneously bet against the public AND back Max Scherzer. But that’s the exact opportunity that sharps are afforded tonight in the nation’s capital.

The Cubs just dropped two of three to the Reds while the Nationals are coming off their first series win in more than a month. However, Chicago still sits at an impressive 25-16 while the Nats remain well below .500 at 18-25.

As a result, Average Joes have no problem backing the “better” team at a plus money payout. Not the Goodfellas. They’re fading the trendy dogs.

This game opened with Washington listed as a -124 home favorite and Chicago a +115 underdog. Currently 65% of bets are taking the plus-money with the Cubs, yet we’ve seen this line absolutely skyrocket toward the Nats, with Washington moving from -124 to -155.

What caused this massive 30-cent move? Smart money, of course.

The Nats are receiving only 35% of bets but 55% of dollars, signaling big wagers in their favor. We’ve also seen three separate steam moves on the Nats, with sharps crushing the home team at -128, -136 and -148.

The last move is most meaningful. Despite the line moving more than 20-cents, wiseguys still hit Scherzer and company, which means they still see value even at a more expensive price.

The injury front also favors Washington. The Nats expect star shortstop Trea Turner to return to the lineup tonight, while Cubs slugger Anthony Rizzo may miss this game with a sore lower back.

Milwaukee Brewers @ Atlanta Braves

7:20 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 9 to 9.5)

Pros and Joes (recreational bettors who bet for fun) are largely on the same page when it comes to this over/under.

The total opened at either 9 or 9.5 depending on the sportsbook. Anytime a 9 has been available across the market, sharps have crushed the over. We’ve tracked four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Over 9, without a single conflicting move on the under.

However, we haven’t triggered any Over 9.5 moves. Reading between the lines, sharps are telling you that the value for betting the over is 9.

Using our Sports Insights Betting Trends, we’ve seen 66% of bets take the over, signaling public support, but also 78% of dollars, indicating heavy wiseguy action as well.

An added bonus for sharps and squares sweating the over: The wind is blowing out to left center at 5 mph, hopefully turning warning track fly ball outs into home runs.

Minnesota Twins @ Seattle Mariners

10:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Under (stayed at 9 or fell to 8.5)

Both teams combined for 17 runs last night, with the Twins winning 11-6. Recreational bettors see this offensive explosion and say, “hammer the over again tonight.”

But wiseguys aren’t buying into the recency bias. They’re buying low on a contrarian under with two low-ERA pitchers on the mound (Martin Perez 3.11 vs. Marco Gonzales 3.18).

This total opened at 9. Currently 65% of bets are taking the over, yet the line has remained frozen at 9 (with heavy juice on the under) or even fallen to 8.5. This indicates under liability, with the books refusing to adjust the total up to 9.5 despite the public over betting.

This also happens to be the top Bet Signal play of the night. We’ve tracked a whopping six steam and reverse line moves on the under, all coming on the Under 9. We haven’t seen a single conflicting over move (or buyback).