MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Diamondbacks-Giants, 2 Other Thursday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Diamondbacks-Giants, 2 Other Thursday Games article feature image

San Francisco Giants first baseman Tyler Austin (19) celebrates with third base coach Ron Wotus (23). Credit: John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are betting three National League games tonight, headlined by Diamondbacks-Giants (9:45 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Nationals-Marlins (7:10 p.m. ET) and Dodgers-Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys suffered their second-straight tough luck 1-2 day yesterday, winning the Phillies moneyline but losing the Tigers and Rays.

The Tampa loss was especially frustrating, as the Rays coughed up a 4-3 lead in the seventh inning and lost 6-3. Time to bounce back and get back to Green Dot City.

After analyzing Thursday’s short 10-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a trio of MLB games.

>> All odds as of 1:15 p.m. ET.  Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Washington Nationals (39-40) at Miami Marlins (30-48) 

7:10 p.m. ET | Stephen Strasburg (8-4, 3.79 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcantara (4-6, 3.51 ERA) 

Public bettors see the low over/under in this NL East showdown and say to themselves “it has to go over.” But sharps know better than to just bet an over if the total is high or an under if the total is low.

If it were that easy, Average Joes would all be millionaires and the books would go bankrupt and we all know that isn’t the case.

This total opened at 7.5. Currently 65% of bets are taking the over, but we’ve tracked 67% of dollars on the under. This notable bet vs. dollar discrepancy signals casual $5 bets sweating an over, but sharper dime bets ($1000) from respected pro bettors on the under.

After opening at 7.5 with even juice on both sides (-110), we’ve actually seen the juice move to Under 7.5 (-115) and some books have even briefly dipped to 7. This signals reverse line movement, with books forcing under bettors to pay a higher price because they’ve taken in sharp money on the under and have liability on the under despite the public going over.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked a trio of steam and reverse line moves on the Under 7.5. The weather also provides an under edge, as the wind is blowing in from right-center at 10-12 MPH.

Sharp angle: Under (stayed at 7.5)

Los Angeles Dodgers (55-27) at Colorado Rockies (42-38)

8:40 p.m. ET | Walker Buehler (8-1, 2.96 ERA) vs. Peter Lambert (2-0, 5.85 ERA)

We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this NL West over/under.

Casual bettors love betting overs, especially at high-altitude, hitter friendly Coors Field. After all, it’s just way more fun cashing an exciting, high-scoring game full of hits and home runs (no one wants to sweat a boring, low scoring under).

However, recreational bettors see a high total with a stud pitcher on the mound and they’re going the other way. It has to be an under!

This total opened at 11. Currently 55% of bets are taking the under, but a whopping 76% of dollars are on the over. This heavy over smart money (combined with two over steam moves) caused oddsmakers to adjust the total up to 11.5.

This “contrarian over with reverse line movement” spot has been a favorite of sharps for years. According to our Bet Labs database, when the over is getting less than 50% of bets and the total rises at least a half run, the over has won at a 54% clip, winning +55.23 units since 2005.

Sharp angle: Over (moved from 11 to 11.5)

Arizona Diamondbacks (41-41) at San Francisco Giants (34-45)

9:45 p.m. ET | Alex Young (no record) vs. Tyler Beede (1-2, 7.24 ERA) 

On paper, this looks like a layup for Arizona. The Diamondbacks have a better record, just took two of three from the mighty Dodgers and now get to face a pitcher with a 7.24 ERA. Sounds too good to be true, right?

That’s because it is.

This late night NL West matchup opened at a pick’em, with both sides listed at -104. Right off the bat, that tells you something about how the oddsmakers view this game. If the Snakes are so much better, why is the line so low? Plus oddsmakers knew the public would jump on Arizona at such an inexpensive price and yet the set the line low anyway.

Sharps smell a rat.

Currently 65% of bets are backing the Snakes, yet we’ve seen this line move away from Arizona (-104 to +102) and toward San Francisco (-104 to -110).

Wiseguys hammered the Giants at -102, -105 and -106 across the market, triggering a trifecta of steam and reverse line moves. We haven’t seen any conflicting plays (or buyback on the DBacks).

The G-Men also match one of the Goodfellas’ favorite Bet Labs Fade the Trendy Dog systems. So far this season, unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of bets) have gone 107-68 (61.1%), winning +17.62 units with a 10.1% ROI.

Sharp angle: Giants (moved from -104 to -110)

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