Sharps and Squares Betting Opposite Sides of Brewers-Dodgers Game 3 Over/Under
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jhoulys Chacin and Walker Buehler
- The NLCS resumes tonight at 7:39 p.m. ET for a pivotal Game 3 between the Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers (-184).
- Wiseguys are laying off the moneyline but have taken a clear side on the over/under (7.5).
After trailing 3-0 late in Game 2 of the NLCS, Justin Turner and the Dodgers roared back to score four runs en route to a clutch 4-3 come-from-behind victory.
The best-of-seven series is now tied and heads to Chavez Ravine for a pivotal Game 3 Monday night (7:39 p.m. ET on FS1).
According to Sports Insights' betting data, professionals have yet to make a play on the moneyline. However, sharp money has already come in on the over/under.
Betting Terms to Know
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
- Sharp angle: Under (7.5)
- First pitch: 7:39 p.m. ET
When betting totals, public bettors are generally inclined to take the over, especially if the total is low (7.5 or less). It's no fun to root for a boring, low-scoring game.
Recreational bettors want to see hits and home runs, not strikeouts and double plays. The oddsmakers know this and will shade the over/under with public bias in mind.
This game opened with a total of 7. Despite two aces going head-to-head — Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50 ERA) vs. Walker Buehler (8-5, 2.62 ERA) — the public says the game has to go over.
But sharps disagree. They're buying low on an inflated, contrarian under.
Wiseguys didn't hit the under immediately. Instead, they waited for heavy action on the over (70% of tickets) to push the total from 7 to 7.5.
Once 7.5 was available, sharps pounced.
Pro players at Buckeye got down hard on the under 7.5, triggering a profitable reverse line move.
The under 7.5 is currently being juiced up to -120, signaling it may end up falling back down to 7 before first pitch (check live odds here).
The under is getting only 30% of bets but 44% of dollars, further evidence of big sharp wagers on the under.
An added bonus for wiseguy under backers: the wind is blowing straight in from center field, hopefully turning first-row homers into warning-track outs.
The under also fits the highly profitable Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams Bet Labs PRO system (55.1%, +187.47 units, 7.8% ROI since 2005).
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