MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Dodgers-Padres, 2 Other Friday Games
San Diego Padres second baseman Ian Kinsler and shortstop Greg Garcia. Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games tonight, headlined by Dodgers-Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Athletics-Pirates (7:05 p.m. ET) and Blue Jays-Rangers (8:05 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys split their two plays on Thursday, cashing the Angels moneyline but losing the over.
Now it's on to Fade the Public Friday.
Historically, Friday is the best day to bet against the public because Average Joes are finishing their work weeks, picking up their latest paycheck and getting down on more games than usual, which leads to higher ticket counts and an increased contrarian edge for the sharps.
After analyzing today's stacked 14-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.
>> All odds as of 1:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Full Sports Betting Glossary
- How to Win with Action Network Data
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
- Common Mistakes Sports Bettors Should Avoid
- How to Bet on Baseball: 15 Simple, Profitable Tips
Oakland Athletics @ Pittsburgh Pirates
7:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Athletics (moved from +124 to +110)
Oakland (14-19) is mired in a six-game losing streak. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh (14-14) has won two in a row, enjoys home field advantage and sends their ace Joe Musgrove (1.54 ERA) to the mound. Sounds like a Pirates layup, right?
This Interleague showdown opened with Pittsburgh listed as a moderate -134 favorite. Despite receiving 70% of bets, the line has plummeted to Buccos -119.
What caused this peculiar line movement? Sharp action, of course.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed seven separate steam and reverse line moves on Oakland, with wiseguys crushing the A's at +120, +116, +115 and +105, then three more times at +100.
An added bonus for sharps sweating the Athletics: American League teams have won +125.57 units in interleague play since 2005.
Toronto Blue Jays @ Texas Rangers
8:05 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 10 to 9.5/9)
The public doesn't know which way to go with the over/under. But Goodfellas have taken a clear position.
This total opened at a high 10. Bets are currently split 50/50, but the line has fallen to 9.5. Some books are even down to 9. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the bets are even. Anytime you see a big move with 50/50 betting, it's caused by sharps — not public bettors.
We've seen four different steam and reverse line moves on the Under, with sharps hitting the Under 10 and Under 9.5. Reading between the lines, sharps are telling you that the hook is crucial for the under.
The under also enjoys a massive smart money discrepancy, as only 50% of bets are taking the under but it accounts for a whopping 85% of dollars.
Another reason to like the under: The wind is blowing straight in from center at 8 mph.
Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Diego Padres
10:10 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Padres (moved from +158 to +140)
Casual bettors love betting big market teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Dodgers. When they send their ace to the mound, it's an auto play.
Clayton Kershaw against the lowly Padres? Lock it up.
But sharps know these situations provide a perfect storm of value to buy low and go the other way.
This NL West matchup opened with the Dodgers (20-13) listed as heavy -172 favorites. Currently 71% of bets are laying the big moneyline, yet the line has tumbled to -151. Why would the oddsmakers sweeten the Dodgers' price if the public is already hammering them?
Because they took in big smart money on the Fathers (18-14), creating big liability.
San Diego is only getting 29% of bets but 56% of dollars, a clear indication that big money wagers are grabbing the plus money. We've also seen three bet signals on SD at +159, +155 and +146.
The Fathers also match the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Betting Against the Public (+170.97 units since 2005).
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