MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Giants-Rockies, 2 Other Wednesday Games
San Francisco Giants left fielder Mac Williamson (51) and center fielder Kevin Pillar (1) and right fielder Steven Duggar (6) celebrate after defeating the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Monday, headlined by Giants-Rockies (8:40 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also getting down on Mariners-Yankees (6:35 p.m. ET) and Twins-Blue Jays (7:07 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools available at The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys swept the board last night, going a perfect 3-0 with their Tuesday plays. Anytime the sharps have a good night, they never get cocky and double down the next day.
Win, lose or draw, it’s always flat betting. Grinders with Blinders.
>> All odds taken from Pinnacle as of 3 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees
6:35 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Under (moved from 9.5 to 9)
Despite two relatively low-ERA pitchers facing off (Yusei Kikuchi, 3.98 vs. Jonathan Loaisiga, 2.70), the public sees two stacked lineups in short-porch Yankee stadium and says “give me the over.”
But once again, wiseguys are buying low on a contrarian under.
The total opened at 9.5. Currently 61% of bets are taking the over, yet the line has fallen to 9. Anytime the line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, it’s a dead giveaway that sharps caused the movement.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two big steam moves on the Under 9.5. This influx of smart money from respected bettors forced oddsmakers to adjust the line down to 9. We haven’t seen a single conflicting over move (or buyback).
Mother Nature is providing a slight edge to the under as well, as the wind is blowing in from right center at 5 mph.
Minnesota Twins @ Toronto Blue Jays
7:07 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Blue Jays (moved from +109 to -101)
The Twins blanked the Jays, 3-0, last night to improve to 21-12 on the season. So of course the public is all over Minnesota again tonight at a cheap price against the 15-20 Jays.
This line opened with the Twinkies listed as short -118 favorites. Right off the bat, the oddsmakers are telling you that they expect this to be a close one.
Even though 65% of bets are backing the Twins, the line has fallen away from Minnesota (-118 to -107) and toward Toronto (+109 to -101). This reverse line movement is a clear indication that sharps got down hard on the Jays (37% bets but 48% of dollars).
An added edge for sharps sweating the Birds: Phil Cuzzi is the home plate ump. Home teams have won 58.1% of their games (+28.10 units) with Cuzzi behind the plate since 2005.
San Francisco Giants @ Colorado Rockies
8:40 p.m. ET
Sharp angle: Giants (moved from +143 to +129)
The Giants crushed the Rockies, 14-4, in the series opener last night, cashing as +111 contrarian dogs (35% of bets). Despite both teams having identical 16-20 records, the public says the Rockies are the better team and have to win Game 2 at home tonight.
Not so fast, say the sharps.
This line opened with Colorado listed as a -160 favorite. Despite receiving 70% of bets, the line has fallen to -140. Why would the books hand out a better number to Average Joes when they’re already on the Rockies?
We noticed wiseguys hammer SF at +143 and +138, triggering a pair of steam moves that dropped the G-Men from +143 to +129. The Giants are also receiving a massive smart money discrepancy (30% of bets but 55% of dollars), further evidence of pro bettors backing the plus-money road dogs.
An added bonus: Ryan Blakney is behind the plate tonight. Since 2005, home teams have lost 24.17 units with Blakney calling balls and strikes.