MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Phillies, 2 Other Tuesday Games

MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Phillies, 2 Other Tuesday Games article feature image

Philadelphia Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto (10) tags out Washington Nationals first baseman Ryan Zimmerman (11). Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

  • Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games on Tuesday, headlined by Washington Nationals-Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also betting Los Angeles Dodgers-St. Louis Cardinals (7:45 p.m. ET) and New York Yankees-Houston Astros (8:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how pros are betting each game.

Wiseguys kicked off their week in Green Dot City yesterday, going a perfect 3-0 with their Monday plays. With college basketball over and the NBA/NHL regular seasons winding down, public bettors will be forced to shift their attention to baseball, leading to increased contrarian value for the sharps the rest of the way.

After analyzing Tuesday’s stacked 14-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.

>> All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies 

7:05 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Phillies (moved from -127 to -145)

The betting public doesn’t know which way to go with this NL East moneyline. But wiseguys have taken a clear side. In a matchup of two stud pitchers (Stephen Strasburg vs. Aaron Nola), 53% of bets are taking the Phillies, indicating a slight public lean.

However, the line has skyrocketed toward the Phils (-127 to 145). In a vacuum, 53% of bets shouldn’t move a moneyline more than a cent or two.

So what caused this big movement? An influx of smart money on the home favorites (53% bets but 75% dollars).

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we tracked two steam moves on Philly, first at -123 and again at -131.

Los Angeles Dodgers @ St. Louis Cardinals

7:45 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Cardinals (stayed at +114)

Wiseguys cashed bigly on the Cardinals last night. Gambler’s Fallacy says the Dodgers are a great team and must rebound tonight. But sharps are going back to the St. Louis well.

This game opened with the Dodgers listed as short -126 road favorites. Currently 80% of bets are backing the Dodgers, making LA the most lopsided public play of the day.

However, despite this massive public support, the line has barely budged across the market. It has even dipped to LAD -124 or -123 at a handful of books.

This indicates a sharp line freeze on St. Louis, with books refusing to hand out more plus-money to sharp Cards backers due to liability on the home dogs.

New York Yankees @ Houston Astros

8:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Astros (moved from -175 to -197)

Sharps love taking advantage of plus-money underdogs. But they won’t shy away from a big favorite if they see value and can exploit an edge.

This marquee showdown of AL heavyweights is a perfect example. With Gerrit Cole at home facing the unknown Jonathan Loaisiga, the Astros opened as heavy -175 favorites.

The public loves the Astros at home with their ace on the mound, but how can you not take a shot on the Yankees at a huge plus-money payout (+151 to +173)?

Despite bets being split right down the middle, Houston has moved from -175 to -197, a clear signal that sharps are backing the home favorite. We also noticed two steam moves on Houston, first at -160 and then again at -190.

We haven’t seen a single conflicting Yankee move (or buyback).

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