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MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Mets, 2 Other Sunday Games

Credit:

Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Washington Nationals starting pitcher Max Scherzer

  • Wiseguys are betting three MLB games on Sunday, headlined by Washington Nationals-New York Mets (1:10 p.m. ET).
  • Sharps are also getting down on Kansas City Royals-Detroit Tigers (1:10 p.m. ET) and Seattle Mariners-Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. ET).
  • Using the tools available at The Action Network, we analyze how the pros are betting each game.

After a thrilling Final Four Saturday, sharps get back to the diamond on Sunday. This is one of the best days for wiseguy baseball grinders with a plethora of day games to analyze. As always, they’ll attack the board fearlessly, but with discipline.

After analyzing Sunday’s massive 15-game slate using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action on three MLB games.


>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.


Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.


Washington Nationals @ New York Mets 

1:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Mets (moved from +120 to +117)

Recreational bettors love betting favorites, big name teams and those with star players. When teams have an ace on the mound, it’s an automatic play.

Not the sharps. They bet numbers, not teams. If they find an edge and see value, they’ll get down on any team. This NL East showdown is a perfect example.

The Nats opened as -140 road favorites. With Max Scherzer on the mound, the public is pounding Washington (80% of bets). However, despite this heavy support, the Nats have fallen to -127, indicating sharp reverse line movement on the Mets.

Using our Sports Insights’ bet signals, we tracked two steam and reverse line moves on the Mets at +131 and +130. We haven’t seen a single conflicting move (or buyback) on Washington.

The Mets also fit the Bet Labs PRO System Betting Against the Public (+174.81 units since 2005).

 

Kansas City Royals @ Detroit Tigers

1:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Royals (moved from -105 to -108)

One look at the records of these two AL Central teams and that’s all the public needs to know. Kansas City is 2-5. Detroit is 6-3 and a short favorite at home. The Tigers sound too good to be true, right?

This lined opened at practically a pick’em. A slight majority of bets are taking the Tigers (54%), but nearly 65% of dollars are coming in on the Royals. Meanwhile, the line has moved slightly toward KC (-105 to -108). This smart money discrepancy and reverse line movement signals wiseguy action on KC.

We also tracked a notable steam move on Kansas City, with not a single move coming on Detroit.

Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

2:10 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Over (9)

Casual bettors don’t know which way to go with this high over/under. But Goodfellas have taken a clear position.

This total opened at 9. Currently 52% of bets are taking the over, but they also account for nearly 90% of dollars. This massive smart money discrepancy means the bigger, sharper wagers are predicting another high-scoring game on the South Side (the over has cashed easily in the first two games of this series).

Also the over is juiced up to -120 or -125 across the market, indicating over liability and the next move likely up to 9.5

We also noticed four separate steam and reverse line moves on the Over 9, with no conflicting under plays.

An added bonus for over backers: Paul Emmel is behind the plate. Since 2005, the under has lost -39.02 units when Emmel calls balls and strikes.

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