MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Rays-Twins, 2 Other Wednesday Games
Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Willy Adames (1) forces out Minnesota Twins shortstop Jorge Polanco (11). Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are getting down on three MLB games tonight, headlined by Rays-Twins (8:10 p.m. ET).
- Sharps are also betting Mets-Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET) and Rangers-Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET).
- Using the tools at Sports Insights and The Action Network. we analyze how pros are betting each game.
Wiseguys gave a unit back to the books yesterday, going 1-2 with their Tuesday plays. The Diamondbacks play was the killer. Sharps beat the closing line (Arizona opened at +120 and closed at -122). But the Snakes blew a late 2-1 lead and lost the Dodgers, 3-2.
There’s no crying in baseball (or moral victories for securing closing line value). Onto the next.
>> All odds as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
- Sharp Betting 101: How to Track Professional Betting Action
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New York Mets (37-43) at Philadelphia Phillies (41-38)
7:05 p.m. ET | Jason Vargas (3-3, 3.75 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (4-2, 5.54 ERA)
Average Joes don’t know which way to go in this NL East showdown. On one hand, they see a Mets team imploding on and off the field and think automatic fade. However, New York has the starting pitching advantage and a juicy plus-money payout.
Not the sharps. They’ve taken a clear position.
Philadelphia opened as a -130 home favorite and New York a +120 road underdog. Moneyline bets are split right down the middle, yet we’ve seen the line skyrocket toward the Phillies (-130 to -150).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move more than a cent or two if the bets are even. So we know this movement wasn’t caused by lopsided public percentages, it was a byproduct of sharps loading up on the Phils.
Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we noticed pros steam Philadelphia at -130, -139 and -146. The fact that wiseguys kept hitting Philly even though the line got worse indicates supreme pro confidence in the home team.
In other words, the juice was worth the squeeze despite the price rising. We also haven’t seen any conflicting plays (or buyback) on the Mets.
Sharp angle: Phillies (moved from -130 to -150)
Texas Rangers (43-36) at Detroit Tigers (26-48)
7:10 p.m. ET | Mike Minor (7-4, 2.52 ERA) vs. Matt Boyd (5-5, 3.61 ERA)
On paper, this looks like the layup of the century. The Rangers have a far better record and a distinct starting pitcher advantage. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 1-9 in their last 10, have the third-worst record in baseball and the second-worst run differential (-142).
So of course wiseguys are buying low on Detroit tonight.
This game opened with Texas listed as a relatively short -125 road favorite and Detroit a +115 underdog. Currently 78% of bets are rushing to the window to bet the Rangers, making them one of the most lopsided public plays of the night, yet we’ve seen this line fall all the way to a pick’em (TEX -125 to -105, DET +115 to -105).
Why would the oddsmakers drop the line so much and hand out a better number to public Texas backers?
Because they’ve been pummeled with wiseguy Tigers money all day.
Sharps crushed DET at +115, -107 and -109 at various sportsbooks across the market, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves in its favor.
Sharp angle: Tigers (moved from +115 to -105)
Tampa Bay Rays (45-34) at Minnesota Twins (51-27)
8:10 p.m. ET | Charlie Morton (8-1, 2.31 ERA) vs. Jake Odorizzi (10-3, 2.58 ERA)
Minnesota took down Tampa Bay, 9-4, in last night’s series opener. The public sees a stellar pitching matchup and says flip a coin tonight, but sharps are loading up on the Rays in a bounce-back spot.
This line opened with the Twins listed as short -110 home favorites and the Rays +102 dogs. The bets are split 50/50, yet we’ve seen the line completely flip away from Minnesota (-110 to +103) and toward Tampa (+102 to -112).
If Tampa was receiving 75% of bets and we saw this type of movement in its favor, it would be considered a standard adjustment on behalf of the books. The fact that the tickets are even and line moved bigly in Tampa’s favor is a dead giveaway that sharps are siding with the road team.
We also tracked a pair of steam and reverse line moves on TB at +102 and +100. We haven’t seen a single conflicting play on the Twins, which means their support is purely public.
According to our Bet Labs database, non-division road favorites have gone 145-93 (60.9%) this season, winning +15.17 units with a 6.4% ROI. The Rays fit the bill tonight.
Sharp angle: Rays (moved from +102 to -112)