MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Reds-Angels, 2 Other Tuesday Games

Wiseguys started their week off in Green Dot City yesterday, cashing the Cubs and Diamondbacks moneylines en route to a 2-1 Monday night. With a massive selection of games to choose from today, wiseguys will look to stay selective and pick their spots. Fearless but disciplined, always.

After analyzing Tuesday’s stacked 15-game schedule using the betting tools available at Sports Insights and The Action Network, I’ve identified sharp action coming down on a trio of MLB games.

Betting Terms to Know

Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.

Reverse Line Movement (RLM): When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.

Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.

Oakland Athletics (41-38) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (40-37) 

8:15 p.m. ET | Chris Bassitt (4-3, 3.64 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (4-4, 4.24 ERA)

This Interleague showdown doesn't make much sense to the public. Both teams have similar records and the Athletics have the starting pitcher advantage, as Bassitt's ERA is more than a half-run lower than Flaherty's.

Sure, the Cardinals are at home, but why is St. Louis such a big favorite? On paper, this looks like a coin flip between two evenly-matched teams.

Wiseguys know if it looks too good to be true, it almost always is.

The Cardinals opened as -135 home favorites and the Athletics as +125 road dogs. Currently 60% of bets are grabbing the plus-money with Oakland, yet we've actually seen this line move bigly toward toward St. Louis (-135 to -150).

Why would the books hand out a better price to Athletics bettors if the public is already on them?

Because sharps loaded up on the St. Louis (40% of bets, 65% of dollars), forcing oddsmakers to adjust the line in its favor.

The Cardinals also find themselves in a profitable historical spot. According to our Bet Labs database, unpopular favorites (receiving less than 50% of bets) have gone 105-66 (61.4%) this season, winning +18.1 units with a 10.6% ROI.

Sharp angle: Cardinals (moved from -135 to -150)

Los Angeles Dodgers (54-26) at Arizona Diamondbacks (40-40)

9:40 p.m. ET | Ross Stripling (3-1, 3.08 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (5-4, 3.87 ERA)

The Diamondbacks stole last night's series opener, 8-5, handing wiseguys a huge win. The public says the Dodgers are a wagon and can't possibly lose again tonight. But sharps aren't falling victim to the Gambler's Fallacy. They're going back to the well.

This NL West matchup opened with the Dodgers listed as -130 road favorites and the D-backs as +120 dogs. Currently 70% of bets are backing Los Angeles, yet we've seen line plummet away from the Dodgers (-130 to -111) and toward Arizona (+120 to +101).

What caused this peculiar line movement? Follow the money.

The Diamondbacks are receiving only 30% of bets but 55% of dollars, signaling big wagers in their favor. We've also seen sharps crush ARI at +127, triggering market-wide reverse line movement in its direction.

Arizona also happens to be a divisional dog with a high total (9.5). Historically, this spot has been a big moneymaker for sharps due to the built-in familiarity and high totals leading to unpredictability and variance, leveling the playing field.

Sharp angle: Diamondbacks (moved from +120 to +101)

Cincinnati Reds (36-40) at Los Angeles Angels (39-40) 

10:07 p.m. ET | Tyler Mahle (2-7, 4.29 ERA) vs. Andew Heaney (0-1, 5.68 ERA)

Casual bettors are innately biased toward favorites, home teams and teams with star players. However, they also bet largely based on pitching matchups and won-loss records.

And if an Average Joe sees two similar teams with one listed as a big favorite and the other a big underdog, they almost always say "give me the dog" with the juicy plus-money payout.

If only it was that easy.

This Interleague moneyline opened with Los Angeles listed as a -145 home favorite and Cincinnati a +134 dog. Currently 65% of bets are grabbing Cincy thanks to the appealing price, yet this line has barely budged more than a few cents (LAA -145 to -140, CIN +134 to +130).

Essentially, we're looking at a sharp line freeze with sportsbooks much more concerned about smart money backing the Halos than $5 bets sweating the Red Legs.

Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we've tracked two steam moves and one reverse line move on LAA, without any conflicting plays (or buyback) on Cincy.

A cherry on top for Goodfellas fading the trendy dog: Mike Trout and Co. match the profitable Bet Labs PRO system Average AL Teams vs. NL (64.1%, +66.1 units. 11.5 ROI since 2005).

Sharp angle: Angels (-140)