Monday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Cubs-Diamondbacks, Three Other Games
USA TODAY Sports
- Wiseguys are betting four MLB games on Monday, headlined by Chicago Cubs-Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET), with Arizona listed as a -134 favorite and an over/under of 7.5.
- Sharps are also betting Washington Nationals-Miami Marlins (7:10 p.m. ET), Cincinnati Reds-Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET) and Colorado Rockies-Los Angeles Dodgers (10:10 p.m. ET).
Public bettors will be glued to Monday Night Football tonight. But wiseguys are riding baseball until the bitter end. They know that the final two weeks provide sneaky sharp value.
In games 150 to 162, underdogs receiving fewer than 40% of bets with reverse line movement have gone 304-366 (45.4%), winning +58.71 units with an 8.8% ROI since 2005.
After analyzing Monday’s 12-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:10 p.m., 7:35 p.m., 9:40 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins
- Sharp angle: Marlins (moved from +143 to +138)
- First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
The Nats are 76-74 and the Marlins are 58-91. That’s all the public needs to know. However, despite receiving 72% of bets, Washington has fallen from -155 to -150, indicating sharp reverse line movement on Miami.
Goodfellas at The Greek and SIA hammered MIA +142 and +135. The Marlins also enjoy a notable smart money discrepancy (28% bets but 51% dollars) and they’re a divisional dog with a high total, a profitable spot since 2005.
Miami also fits the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win (+165.90 units since 2005).
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Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
- Sharp angle: Reds (moved from +170 to +156)
- First pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
The Brewers have their sights set on the postseason. They’re up three games in the wild-card race and are only 2.5 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. Sharps like the Reds to play spoiler tonight.
Cincinnati is getting only 22% of bets but 41% of dollars and has moved from +170 to +156 since opening. This profitable bets vs. dollars discrepancy and sharp reverse line movement indicates smart money on the Redlegs.
Cincy is a divisional dog on the road with a high total and also matches two valuable Bet Labs systems: Betting Against the Public Report (+174.17 units since 2005) and Visiting Dogs vs. Better Divisional Opponent (+149.99 units since 2005).
Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks
- Sharp angle: D-backs (moved from -133 to -134)
- First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
The Cubs are public darlings anytime they take the field, especially when they’re a dog getting a decent plus-money payout. Tonight, 60% of bets are taking the Cubs, yet the line has moved slightly toward Arizona (-133 to -134).
This signals sharp action on the D-backs, with wiseguys fading the trendy dog. Pros at SIA and BetOnline got down hard on ARI -127 and -135. This indicates purely public money on the Cubbies.
Another benefit for sharp ‘Zona backers: the total is low (7.5). Low totals benefit favorites, historically.
Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers
- Sharp angle: Under (7.5)
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
We’re seeing a classic Pros vs. Joes disagreement with this late-game NL West total. The public notices a low total and automatically says it has to go Over. But wiseguys are buying low on a contrarian Under with Jon Gray (4.80 ERA) facing Hyun-Jin Ryu (2.42 ERA).
Currently 64% of bets are going Over, but 51% of dollars are on the Under. Sharps at ABC and Carib hit the Under 7.5, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves. The Under juice has moved from 7.5 Under -115 to 7.5 Under -125, indicating it may even fall to 7.
The Under also matches one of the top Bet Labs systems: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+188.98 units since 2005).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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