Padres at Giants: Picking on Plus-Money Props

San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, 10:15 p.m. ET

Padres (Clayton Richard): +120
Giants (Chris Stratton): -133
Over/Under: 7.5

Bet to Watch

Yesterday, I picked the wrong Coors Field pitcher, as Steven Matz easily hit over 3.5, but Kyle Freeland fell one strikeout short of toppling his strikeout total.

Today has no shortage of strikeout prop value, though, and I'm right back on the wagon.

Let's hope my wagon doesn't wind up like that one…

Tonight in San Francisco, the Giants host the Padres in a divisional affair.

FantasyLabs is projecting Richard to get 6.5, while books are offering 4.5 (over +137). This implies he'll get only around four Ks, which represents about a 60% differential. That's nuts.

Richard has always been far from a strikeout pitcher, but that's changed a little this season. After posting a career average of below six strikeouts per nine, the 10-year vet has posted a career best 7.37 this season. In his past 10 games, he's reached five strikeouts seven times, including each of the past four starts. In his last start vs. the Giants, he racked up six.

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If you're a little less confident in his chances to reach five, you can take over 4 (-110), which will give you some security if he lands exactly on four. I personally put a couple units on the over.

The pick: Clayton Richard over 4.5 strikeouts (+137)