Padres vs. Phillies Odds, Preview, Prediction: Should Philadelphia Be Favored on Friday? (July 2)

Padres vs. Phillies Odds

The Philadelphia Phillies host the San Diego Padres in one of the weekend's most exciting MLB series.

San Diego plays in the highly competitive National League West. So, despite the team's stellar overall record of 49-34, the Padres are only in third place in the division. If they played the NL East — where the Phillies play — the Padres would be ahead of the first-place New York Mets by five games.

Philadelphia had a strong start to the season, but then the wheels stared to fall off. Now, the Phillies have a 37-41 record and are in fourth place in the NL East. However, Philadelphia is only 4.5 games behind the Mets for first place, and the Phillies have a competitive roster. With strong starting pitching and a decent lineup, Philly still has a chance to win the division.

For Friday night’s game, the Phillies are relying on one of their strongest starting pitchers in Zack Wheeler. The question is: Does Philadelphia deserves to be a small favorite at home with a strong pitcher against a better team?

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San Diego Padres

Pitching for the San Diego Padres on Friday night is RHP Chris Paddack, who has a 4-5 record with a 4.64 ERA through 14 starts. Despite having a losing record and a high ERA, the Phillies should not tread lightly on Paddack, because he also boasts a 3.52 xFIP.

Paddack's two primary issues are his usage and recent performance: He averages fewer than five innings per start. San Diego can rely on Paddack to pitch well on occasion. However, in Paddack’s last start he pitched 2 1/3 innings and allowed five earned runs against the lowly Arizona Diamondbacks. Over his last five starts, Paddack has a 6.46 ERA.

Backing up Paddack is a Padres lineup that has done well this season. While the average MLB team is scoring 4.45 runs per game, San Diego is averaging 4.59 runs per game. The Padres lineup is deep and menacing, led principally by SS Fernando Tatis Jr. and 3B Manny Machado. In fact, according to my model, all Padres position players besides C Victor Caratini are above-average offensively.

Philadelphia Phillies

San Diego's lineup of stellar hitters may be daunting, but so too is Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler, who is formidable in his own right.

Since arriving to Philly in 2020, Wheeler is pitching the best baseball of his career. Last year Wheeler had a 4-2 record with a 2.92 ERA. This season, Wheeler has a 6-4 record with a 2.20 ERA and 2.84 xFIP. Additionally, Wheeler is averaging about 6 2/3 innings per start, which decreases the opportunities that the Phillies have for blowing a lead established before Wheeler exits the game.

Backing up Wheeler is a Phillies lineup that has been decent this season. Philadelphia averages only 4.27 runs per game, which is only 0.08 fewer runs than the median MLB team despite playing in the National League. The Phillies possess a strong offensive core featuring OF Bryce Harper, OF Andrew McCutchen, C J.T. Realmuto and 1B Rhys Hoskins.

Padres vs. Phillies Pick

The San Diego Padres are a better team than the Philadelphia Phillies. That is not surprising as Philly is a borderline .500 level team, and the Padres are legitimate World Series contenders. However, based on the pitching matchup, Philadelphia deserves to be the favorite.

While I would like to bet on the Phillies on Friday night, the current odds are simply too steep at -120 to -125 across the betting market. If I can get Philly at -110 or better prior to first pitch, then I plan on betting on the Phillies moneyline. However, if the price does not change, then I'll stay my hand.

Pick: Philadelphia Phillies ML -110 or better